Royal Battle of Chinese Dairy Companies Unfolds in Southeast Asian Market
On the evening of March 11, an official announcement from the headquarters of New Hope Dairy (part of New Hope Group Company Limited) stirred the calm waters of the Chinese dairy industry.
The announcement stated that the company plans to issue H-class shares and list on the main board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. If successful, this dairy company, part of the Liu Yonghao family business empire, will be the first in China's industry to have stocks traded both on the mainland market and in Hong Kong ("A+H").
However, the capital market's reaction dampened this enthusiasm. The day after the announcement, New Hope Dairy's shares fell to the daily limit during trading and ultimately closed with a 9.21% drop; its market capitalization shrank by more than 1.5 billion yuan.
Understanding investors' concerns is easy: amid ongoing weak liquidity in Hong Kong and overall pressure on dairy company valuations, why is New Hope Dairy rushing to secondary listing in Hong Kong?
In June last year, New Hope Dairy Vice President Zhang Shuai said that the company aims to make full use of the global resource distribution of the New Hope group to "travel light," and by following the strategy of "being half a step ahead," to look at opportunity markets such as Southeast Asia.
Currently, giants like Yili and Mengniu are shifting their strategic focus to Southeast Asia; in this land with a population of nearly 700 million, a "royal battle" of Chinese dairy companies is quietly unfolding.
The main goal of New Hope Dairy's move to Hong Kong is primarily to "fuel" itself with capital.
The volume of H-share issuance will not exceed 15% of the total registered capital after the placement; the raised funds will mainly go towards product updates, market expansion, supply chain modernization, R&D, digital development, and operational needs of the company.
Chanson Capital's Executive Director Shen Meng stated outright: the purpose of issuing H-shares is to raise funds and improve the asset-liability structure.
According to the company's website, it has 15 key dairy brands, 16 milk processing plants, and 12 of its own farms.
Revenue grew fr om 5.675 billion yuan in 2019 to 10.987 billion yuan in 2023 — the company entered the "10 billion club." But scaling through mergers has also planted risks.
From 2022–2024, New Hope Dairy's total liabilities were 6.825 billion, 6.299 billion, and 5.736 billion yuan, respectively; meanwhile, short-term liabilities were high — 4.261 billion, 4.018 billion, and 3.731 billion yuan. The debt ratio (liabilities to assets) was 71.91%, 70.47%, and 64.61%; by the end of the third quarter of 2025, it had decreased to 59.98%.
In 2024, New Hope Dairy's revenue fell by 2.93% year-on-year to 10.665 billion yuan; this was the first negative revenue change since 2015.
Although revenue increased by 3.49% in the first three quarters of 2025 to 8.434 billion yuan, compared to previous rapid growth rates, the pace has noticeably slowed.
Amidst general pressure on the liquid milk market and intense industry competition, New Hope Dairy urgently needs a new growth engine.
The choice of Southeast Asia is not accidental. From a supply perspective, the Chinese dairy industry is experiencing a structural "winter": according to NielsenIQ, in September 2025, dairy product sales across all channels fell by 16.8% year-on-year.
Raw milk prices remain low, and domestic companies are in dire need of new growth points.
The Southeast Asian market can be called the "new continent of the dairy industry": according to CICC research, in 2024, the dairy product market volume in six ASEAN countries reached 24.7 billion USD, but per capita dairy consumption is only 11 liters per year — significantly below the global average of 28 liters.
Therefore, Southeast Asia has become the new battleground for dairies.
Yili introduced a new ice cream sub-brand "Joyday" to the Indonesian market in 2018 and also established an innovation center in Indonesia for Southeast Asia; additionally, Yili's flavored dairy products are exported to Singapore, Thailand, Myanmar, Malaysia, Vietnam, and other countries.
After the arrival of new CEO Gao Fei, Mengniu proposed the "one body — two wings" strategy, aimed at further accelerating international business and turning it into a long-term growth driver for the group.
Data shows that Mengniu's ice cream brand "Aice" is showing strong growth and has already secured the top market share position in Indonesia and the second position in the ready-to-eat ice cream market in the Philippines.
In June last year, Feihe also chose the Philippines as the first stop and entered the Southeast Asian market, launching middle and premium formula fresh milk and children's nutrition AceKid, and then expanded to Vietnam, Indonesia, and other countries.
Clearly, New Hope Dairy is also targeting this opportunity, but internationalization requires money — and more importantly, an international platform for capital market operations.
While the A-market has a strong funding function, it still has limitations in cross-border acquisitions, currency regulation, and attracting overseas investors; Hong Kong, as an international financial center, is obviously better suited for this role.
For New Hope Dairy, listing in Hong Kong may be just the first step; the real test will be whether it can, once "provisions and ammunition" are secured, carve a path in the Southeast Asian market, wh ere it is already surrounded by giants.
However, the capital market's reaction dampened this enthusiasm. The day after the announcement, New Hope Dairy's shares fell to the daily limit during trading and ultimately closed with a 9.21% drop; its market capitalization shrank by more than 1.5 billion yuan.
Understanding investors' concerns is easy: amid ongoing weak liquidity in Hong Kong and overall pressure on dairy company valuations, why is New Hope Dairy rushing to secondary listing in Hong Kong?
Currently, giants like Yili and Mengniu are shifting their strategic focus to Southeast Asia; in this land with a population of nearly 700 million, a "royal battle" of Chinese dairy companies is quietly unfolding.
The main goal of New Hope Dairy's move to Hong Kong is primarily to "fuel" itself with capital.
The volume of H-share issuance will not exceed 15% of the total registered capital after the placement; the raised funds will mainly go towards product updates, market expansion, supply chain modernization, R&D, digital development, and operational needs of the company.
Chanson Capital's Executive Director Shen Meng stated outright: the purpose of issuing H-shares is to raise funds and improve the asset-liability structure.
According to the company's website, it has 15 key dairy brands, 16 milk processing plants, and 12 of its own farms.
Revenue grew fr om 5.675 billion yuan in 2019 to 10.987 billion yuan in 2023 — the company entered the "10 billion club." But scaling through mergers has also planted risks.
From 2022–2024, New Hope Dairy's total liabilities were 6.825 billion, 6.299 billion, and 5.736 billion yuan, respectively; meanwhile, short-term liabilities were high — 4.261 billion, 4.018 billion, and 3.731 billion yuan. The debt ratio (liabilities to assets) was 71.91%, 70.47%, and 64.61%; by the end of the third quarter of 2025, it had decreased to 59.98%.
In 2024, New Hope Dairy's revenue fell by 2.93% year-on-year to 10.665 billion yuan; this was the first negative revenue change since 2015.
Although revenue increased by 3.49% in the first three quarters of 2025 to 8.434 billion yuan, compared to previous rapid growth rates, the pace has noticeably slowed.
Amidst general pressure on the liquid milk market and intense industry competition, New Hope Dairy urgently needs a new growth engine.
The choice of Southeast Asia is not accidental. From a supply perspective, the Chinese dairy industry is experiencing a structural "winter": according to NielsenIQ, in September 2025, dairy product sales across all channels fell by 16.8% year-on-year.
Raw milk prices remain low, and domestic companies are in dire need of new growth points.
The Southeast Asian market can be called the "new continent of the dairy industry": according to CICC research, in 2024, the dairy product market volume in six ASEAN countries reached 24.7 billion USD, but per capita dairy consumption is only 11 liters per year — significantly below the global average of 28 liters.
Therefore, Southeast Asia has become the new battleground for dairies.
Yili introduced a new ice cream sub-brand "Joyday" to the Indonesian market in 2018 and also established an innovation center in Indonesia for Southeast Asia; additionally, Yili's flavored dairy products are exported to Singapore, Thailand, Myanmar, Malaysia, Vietnam, and other countries.
After the arrival of new CEO Gao Fei, Mengniu proposed the "one body — two wings" strategy, aimed at further accelerating international business and turning it into a long-term growth driver for the group.
Data shows that Mengniu's ice cream brand "Aice" is showing strong growth and has already secured the top market share position in Indonesia and the second position in the ready-to-eat ice cream market in the Philippines.
In June last year, Feihe also chose the Philippines as the first stop and entered the Southeast Asian market, launching middle and premium formula fresh milk and children's nutrition AceKid, and then expanded to Vietnam, Indonesia, and other countries.
Clearly, New Hope Dairy is also targeting this opportunity, but internationalization requires money — and more importantly, an international platform for capital market operations.
While the A-market has a strong funding function, it still has limitations in cross-border acquisitions, currency regulation, and attracting overseas investors; Hong Kong, as an international financial center, is obviously better suited for this role.
For New Hope Dairy, listing in Hong Kong may be just the first step; the real test will be whether it can, once "provisions and ammunition" are secured, carve a path in the Southeast Asian market, wh ere it is already surrounded by giants.
