China’s raw milk market continued to stabilize in April
China’s raw milk market continued to stabilize in April, with prices in major producing regions averaging RMB 3.02/kg. The MoM decline narrowed to 0.33%, indicating that the earlier downward trend is gradually easing.
On the supply side, farm production has largely normalized following the holiday period. At the same time, earlier capacity adjustments and reductions in herd size are beginning to limit supply flexibility, helping to anchor the market.
Demand remains in its seasonal off-peak. While the sharp post-Chinese New Year slowdown has moderated, recovery across categories is uneven. UHT milk continues to face intense competition, weighing on overall performance. In contrast, chilled products such as yogurt and cheese are holding up relatively better, albeit from a smaller base, while frozen dairy product remains in its seasonal lull.
This uneven demand profile continues to slow inventory destocking and temper the pace of recovery, even as broader retail and foodservice indicators show some improvement.
Near-term:
Seasonal factors, including the Labors' Day holiday, may provide a modest lift to consumption across both retail and foodservice channels. However, with supply still steady and demand yet to fully recover, Chinese raw milk prices are likely to remain within a relatively narrow range in the near term.
To explore the implications for your business or access more detailed analysis, feel free to reach out to our analyst Nate Donnay, John Lancaster, Peter Meehan, Lu Shi.
Demand remains in its seasonal off-peak. While the sharp post-Chinese New Year slowdown has moderated, recovery across categories is uneven. UHT milk continues to face intense competition, weighing on overall performance. In contrast, chilled products such as yogurt and cheese are holding up relatively better, albeit from a smaller base, while frozen dairy product remains in its seasonal lull.
This uneven demand profile continues to slow inventory destocking and temper the pace of recovery, even as broader retail and foodservice indicators show some improvement.
Near-term:
Seasonal factors, including the Labors' Day holiday, may provide a modest lift to consumption across both retail and foodservice channels. However, with supply still steady and demand yet to fully recover, Chinese raw milk prices are likely to remain within a relatively narrow range in the near term.
To explore the implications for your business or access more detailed analysis, feel free to reach out to our analyst Nate Donnay, John Lancaster, Peter Meehan, Lu Shi.
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