Africa’s dairy deficit keeps milk prices high
Africa’s dairy market has expanded while domestic supply has remained below demand in several countries, according to data cited in the 2025 African Agriculture Barometer on the dairy value chain. The report, produced by the FARM Foundation, Afdi and the Pan-African Farmers’ Organization, estimated that the continent’s dairy imports were worth about $7.5bn in 2023, compared with exports of approximately $1.1bn. The resulting deficit was about $6.4bn.
Milk powder, fat-filled milk powder and infant formula represented 76% of dairy imports. African milk production increased from 45.5m tonnes in 2013 to 53.2m tonnes in 2023, a rise of 17%. Its share of global output remained close to 5%, however, as worldwide production grew by 22% over the same period. The barometer said reliance on imports leaves consumers exposed to global dairy prices and interruptions in supply chains, including the sharp rise in international milk-powder prices during the early 2020s.
A 2026 paper in Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems, based on FAOSTAT data, estimated Nigeria’s milk production at about 527,000 tonnes in 2022. The country imported 927,000 tonnes and exported roughly 3,000 tonnes, giving total domestic availability of about 1.443m tonnes. Imports therefore supplied around 64% of that amount.
Nigeria’s National Bureau of Statistics said the average price of a 150-gram tin of Peak evaporated milk reached ₦1,055.15 in April 2026. It had averaged ₦1,050 in March and ₦994.19 in February, making the April figure 6.13% higher than in February. A 160-gram tin of Three Crown averaged ₦936.70 in April, compared with ₦933.12 in March and ₦888.91 in February.
The Nigerian government is seeking to reduce import dependence. Livestock Development Minister Idi Mukhtar Maiha said in July that it was pursuing public-private partnerships to expand domestic production and cut the country’s estimated annual dairy import bill of $1.5bn. “Our objective is not simply to import cattle. Our objective is to build a sustainable dairy industry that improves local productivity, strengthens our genetics, creates jobs, empowers livestock farmers and substantially reduces the nation’s dependence on imported dairy products,” he said.
Under a proposed dairy partnership reviewed by the ministry, Hillview Ranch Enterprises Limited proposed bringing in 60,000 pregnant or lactating dairy cattle in stages, starting with 2,500 animals. The complete programme is projected to produce about 229.5m litres of milk a year. The government also aims to increase national output from roughly 700,000 tonnes to 1.4m tonnes annually within five years. The Frontiers study listed low productivity, the predominance of indigenous cattle, animal-health problems, climate stress, unreliable electricity and limited cold-storage capacity among the sector’s constraints.
Egypt produced an estimated 5.724m tonnes of milk in 2022 and imported about 2.2m tonnes, according to the same study. Imports made up approximately 29% of domestic availability. An analysis of UN Comtrade data by the Global Trade Analysis Information Center put Egypt’s 2025 imports of unsweetened solid milk and cream at 23,620 tonnes, worth $106.52m. The average import price increased by 13.3% to about $4,510 a tonne. World Bank WITS data based on UN Comtrade recorded 2024 imports of 5.82m kg of non-concentrated milk and cream, valued at about $6.72m, and 2.15m kg of concentrated milk and cream, worth $1.64m.
Retail listings in Egypt placed one litre of full-cream milk at EGP42.99 for Obour Land, EGP41.50 for Bashayer, EGP44.99 for Lamar, EGP47.99 for Juhayna and EGP53.50 for Almarai. In Dakar, Numbeo’s May 2026 data put the average price of regular milk at 1,528 CFA francs per litre, with reported prices ranging from 1,100 to 2,300 CFA francs.
Zimbabwe’s figures showed that increased output did not coincide with lower costs. The 2026 Commercial Livestock and Fisheries Assessment Report said the commercial dairy herd grew by 7.5% to 70,584 cattle in 2025, while milk production rose by 6.2% to 121.85m litres. The Zimbabwe Association of Dairy Farmers estimated production costs at about $0.63 per litre, against an average producer price of $0.58. Retail UHT milk averaged about $1.35 per litre.
