China's Dairy Industry Overview - 2023
China has firmly established itself as a major player in the global dairy market, characterized by substantial production capabilities and evolving consumption patterns. Strategic advancements in its domestic market have solidified its influence on the international stage.
Key Statistics
- Number of Dairy Cattle: Exact figures are unavailable due to ongoing agricultural reforms and statistical discrepancies.
- Milk Production Volume: Approximately 36 million tons per year.
- Milk Processing Volume: Estimated at 60.18 million tons per year.
- Cheese Production Volume: Currently experiencing growth, though specific numbers have not been disclosed.
- Milk Powder and Whey Production: Notable increase in whole milk powder production, with a reported 11.0% reduction in skimmed milk powder exports.
Key Enterprises
- Junlebao Dairy Group Co., Ltd.: Notable for its IPO and stock market listing activities.
- Bright Dairy Holdings: Participated in financial bailout efforts for Synlait.
- Yili Group: A major market influencer.
- Mengniu Dairy: A dominant player in China's dairy sector.
Export and Import of Dairy Products
- Exports (2023): Reports indicate an 11.0% decrease in skimmed milk powder exports.
- Imports (2023): Despite a domestic surplus, imports of specialized high-quality products remain significant, amounting to 17.18 million tons in milk equivalency.
Significant Events
- IPO and Listing: Junlebao Dairy's public stock offering marks a significant milestone.
- Bailout Efforts: Bright Dairy's involvement in Synlait's financial recovery efforts.
- Production Measures: Initiatives to stabilize the market by regulating dairy and beef production levels.
- Global Impact: China's increasing demand is affecting global markets, notably in Poland.
- Market Trends: Ultra-high temperature (UHT) milk sales expected to reach USD 15.2 billion by 2034, with a CAGR of 6.5%.
- Regulatory Developments: Proposed updates to national food safety standards for sterilized milk have been tabled.
- Trade Breakthroughs: Enhanced agricultural trade agreements via the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC).
- Award: Mengniu's Ningxia plant has achieved 'Lighthouse factory' certification from the World Economic Forum.
- Milk Powder Needs: Domestic production satisfies 60% of national requirements.
- U.S. Trade Relations: A 13% decline in U.S. dairy exports to China as of September 2023.
- Political Proposals: Former U.S. President Trump proposed a 10% tariff on imports from China due to pharmaceutical export policies.
- National Dairy Innovation Center: Officially commenced operations.
- U.S. Exports: High-protein whey (WPC80+) exports to China surged by 225% year-over-year.
- Russia-China Relations: China recorded the fastest growth in imports of Russian ice cream, increasing purchases by 1.4 times to $2.7 million.
China's dairy industry, marked by surplus production and shifting consumption preferences, continues to navigate intricate international trade dependencies. Companies such as China Youran Dairy Group Limited highlight innovation and strategic initiatives. Further, China's status as a top-five buyer of Russian dairy products reveals shifts in trading strategies. Despite downward pressure on domestic milk prices, enterprises such as Danone and Yakult Honsha Co. pursue sustainable growth. The closure of two Five-Year Plans within a decade underscores the importance of China’s dairy sector, albeit confronting challenges related to changing consumption patterns and import needs.
China's influence extends to being a top export market for Malaysian palm oil products in 2024, underscoring its continuing impact on global trends. Meanwhile, the U.S. administration plans to impose a 10% tariff on Chinese products. Indications of demand recovery in China offer new opportunities for New Zealand exporters, with the nation poised to slightly increase its import volumes by 2025. Offline retailers are exploring new avenues in China's retail landscape as e-commerce sees a phase of moderated growth. Moreover, palm oil prices are following upward trends seen in China's Dalian Commodity Exchange, where edible oil futures are performing strongly. China's role in US dairy exports adds pressure to the US market.
China, a member of BRICS, could see increased trade opportunities with South Africa. China alters dairy import policy amid rising consumer demand. The growing purchasing power of Chinese consumers has driven imports of dairy products such as cream and butter. La Cooperativa Nacional de Productores de Leche (Conaprole) recently inked a landmark agreement with Yili, the preeminent dairy enterprise in China and Asia. The U.S. dairy industry is making significant strides in China with a dairy by-product gaining popularity.
China was a key importer of Russian dairy products.
Modified: 2025/02/19
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