The Butterboom: Understanding Trends in Dairy and Butterfat Exports

In a remarkable development, butterfat exports are surging at a pace over twice as fast as the past two years, illuminating a significant trend in the dairy industry. As of May 2025, this growth trajectory elevates the conversation around future butterfat supply dynamics.

The initial months of 2024 saw butterfat exports lag behind 2023, but a notable upsurge commenced in June, sustaining through the remainder of the year. This trend ran parallel with a dramatic rise in butter prices, which peaked at an unprecedented $3.50 in October. However, the first quarters of 2025 have now brought exports more than double those seen in 2023 and 2024 combined.

The Impact on Milk Production

Additionally, U.S. milk production is experiencing a boost with March's output rising by 0.9% from 2024. The increase stems from an additional 8,000 dairy cows, bringing the herd total to 9.40 million, and a per-cow production rise of 6 pounds. This unexpected productivity indicates a robust milk supply which may minimize aggressive purchasing in the spot market.

Market Outlook

Despite ongoing tariff tensions, particularly with China, the influence on butterfat exports remains minimal due to limited volume imports. This disparity allows international demand to thrive, supported by favorable U.S. and global price differences. If seasonal downturns in butterfat content align with heightened demand, prices could experience significant upward movement. Notably, March's butter inventory rose by 18.1 million pounds, exceeding typical expectations and reflecting a 4% annual growth.