Kazakhstan's Ice Cream Market Outlook for 2025: Competition Leaves No Room for Error

The reason lies not in external conditions, but in persistent misconceptions and a systemic underestimation of key market shifts, of which there are three main ones:

1. Export without Adaptation is No Longer a Strategy, But a Self-Restriction

The market still erroneously operates under the paradigm: "Sell what already sells well at home." In practice, this is not just a debatable position—it's a strategic misconception. Declining sales in challenging export directions are a direct signal: markets do not adapt to the product. Export is not about selling 'your' product. Export is about adapting the product to a foreign consumption culture. Ignoring cultural characteristics and local preferences is no longer forgiven—not in volume, margin, or market share.

2. The Consumer Has "Split," Disrupting the Usual Product Range

The formation of a new economic reality was discussed by NTech's Director of Analytics, Leonid Ardalyonov, but not everyone listened. The essence is extremely simple yet uncomfortable:

"Consumers are no longer 'somewhere in the middle'—they are polarizing: on one side, demand is growing for bright, rich, emotionally strong, and tasty products; on the other, consumption of simple and affordable solutions is increasing. Playing in the middle is no longer possible, and this is where the market starts to 'break.'"

A significant portion of the assortment consists of standard ice cream products, which today are squeezed by tight competition both in local and export markets. When a product has no distinguishing features, differentiation comes down only to price. Price does not create a market—it nullifies it.

Creating truly interesting products is difficult. And that's precisely why most players avoid it.

3. Brand as a Survival Factor, Not Just a Marketing Add-On

NTech's approach to analyzing purchasing behavior (shopping algorithms) is still systematically underestimated. Yet, the facts are undeniable: in the ice cream category, the importance of the brand exceeds 82% (the sum of 'Beta' and 'Omega' purchases)—this is higher than in all related categories (dairy products, snacks, confectionery, beverages). This means one thing: on export markets, it’s not just products that compete—brands compete. And the problem now is that truly strong brands are few.

Ice Cream Market in Kazakhstan in 2025: Growth That Changes the Rules of the Game

The ice cream industry in Kazakhstan experienced not just growth last season—it was a full-fledged market renaissance. According to ASPI agency, 63.2 thousand tons of ice cream were produced in 2025—a 22% increase, marking the highest growth since 2000. Ice cream exports from Kazakhstan exceeded imports for the first time in history, marking a pivotal market shift. Local producers are already meeting the basic demand. To enter the Kazakhstani market now, you need a strong brand, a distinctive product, and a clear positioning. Otherwise, you'll simply go unnoticed.

Imports in Kazakhstan: Competition Intensifies

Total imports decreased by 5.1% to 12.2 thousand tons. Kazakhstan is no longer a "gateway" market—it has become a "selection" market. Imports are decreasing not because they are bad, but because they are indistinguishable.

Supplies from Russia even increased by 15% (to 6.5 thousand tons). But the key story is not the volumes, but the battle for shelf space.

The market is witnessing intense opposition between Russian and Turkish manufacturers over the brands 'Magna' and 'Golden Standard.'

In fact:

• the north of Kazakhstan remains an area of Russian manufacturer presence,

• while the central and southern markets of Kazakhstan are controlled by Turkey's Algida (Unilever),

This is no longer just product competition—it's a battle of distribution systems and brands.

Who Wins

In the midst of overall turbulence, only those who play by the new rules feel stable:

• GC 'Renna'—focus on quality,

• 'Froneri' and 'Mars'—strong product collaborations,

• 'Ferrero', 'London Dairy', 'Mövenpick'—world premium in ice cream,

• 'Polaris' with 'Prostokvashino'—brand strength,

• 'Lotte' and 'Binggrae'—unconventional interesting solutions.

Other 'standard ice creams' are beginning to lose even to local alternatives.

Import from Kyrgyzstan: End of an Era of Cheap Advantage

The import of 'Umut' ice cream from Kyrgyzstan decreased by 30%—to 4.1 thousand tons. The reason is obvious: relying on low prices stopped working in the sufficiently developed Kazakhstani market. Moreover, with increased control and the closure of 'gray' channels:

- the export price rose (+70.9%),

- as a result, the key competitive advantage disappeared.

Dumping no longer saves and seems unlikely to return as a viable strategy.

Import from Uzbekistan: Still Tentative Attempts

Import from Uzbekistan is growing, but in absolute terms, volumes remain insignificant, not impacting the market itself. However, this figure reflects an important market trend: after changes in state policy to support local producers and revise import conditions, local Uzbek producers have finally begun to pay more attention to product quality and competitiveness issues both domestically and internationally.

Currently, the real market entry barrier in Kazakhstan is not the product. The main market barrier is not taste, quality, or price, but ice cream distribution. Channels are already controlled by current players, and they are not interested in new suppliers. The market is formally open, but in fact, it is already divided.

Kazakhstan's Ice Cream Exports Grew by 37% in 2025

Export sales are growing annually to Russia (92%), Kyrgyzstan (30%), and Uzbekistan (50%)—in the latter two markets, there is also a weak ice cream distribution system and a closed market for new players: currently, there is one Kazakhstani producer and four Russian ones in Uzbekistan—others will find it very difficult to 'break into' these markets limited by distribution channels.

Retail Trade in Kazakhstan

According to InfoLine: the revenue share of 'traditional' stores in Kazakhstan decreased from 61% to 55% between 2023 and 2025. Although the 50 largest chains collectively count only 1,765 stores—against 70,000 traditional outlets—the chains now account for a third of the money collected from buyers. The rest belongs to the even more rapidly growing online trade, whose share grew from 9% to 15% over two years.

Nielsen estimates the position of traditional stores as even more challenging: according to their estimates, in 2019, the sales shares of modern and traditional retail in Kazakhstan were 44/56, but by 2022 parity was reached, and by the end of 2024, the ratio changed to 55/45.

Independent experts' estimates indicate that Modern trade now accounts for about 30% in both capitals and only 12-17% on average across the country.

Reference – First 3 Months of 2026 in the Ice Cream Market in Russia

The first quarter of 2026 showed disappointing results: ice cream production in Russia decreased by 12.3% compared to the previous year—from 123,688 tons in 2025 to 108,423 tons in 2026, with January seeing an 11.9% drop, February 20.5%, but only 6.1% in March. We hope that production will level out positively moving forward. We will analyze the dynamics of the Russian ice cream market for the first four months in June 2026.

The market is clearly entering a phase of pressure, which may directly affect export strategies.