Ukraine Risks Returning to Net Importer Status of Dairy Products
As of November 25, the average purchase price for extra-grade milk fell to 16.30 UAH/kg excluding VAT, which is 95 kopecks less than the previous month's level. The price range in farms is 16.00–16.80 UAH/kg.
Top-grade milk is priced on average at 16.10 UAH/kg, a decrease of 90 kopecks. The range is 16.00–16.30 UAH/kg. First-grade milk has become cheaper by 75 kopecks, down to 15.90 UAH/kg, with a minimum price of 15.80 UAH/kg and a maximum of 16.00 UAH/kg. The association notes that the weighted average price of the three grades has dropped to 16.25 UAH/kg, decreasing by 92 kopecks.
The expert emphasizes that this fall's situation is significantly different from the "bull market" of 2024 when significant export demand encouraged processors to increase raw material purchases.
This year, the market is influenced by several factors:
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European prices are falling due to duty-free supplies of cheap dairy products from the USA. This reduces the competitiveness of Ukrainian products in the EU market.
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Domestic consumption is declining: Ukrainians are reducing purchases of fresh fermented dairy products due to decreased purchasing power.
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The growth of cheese imports from Poland, Germany, and the Netherlands is putting pressure on prices within Ukraine, displacing local producers from retail shelves.
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Low export activity limits the ability of processors to purchase raw materials at former prices.
According to Georgiy Kukhaleyshvili, farmers are already experiencing critical pressure: "It is likely that at the beginning of December, there will be another decrease in raw milk prices. This is a serious challenge for producers, as already in November, almost 40% of farms were operating at a loss."
The expert warns that if the current trend continues, the positive results of the industry's development over the past three years could be completely nullified.
"The lack of active exports and the dominance of imports are pressing on the raw milk market. In such conditions, Ukraine risks transforming from an exporter to a net importer," summarizes the analyst.
