USA: Dairy Export Set to Thrive in 2026
In January, US dairy exports increased by 12%: cheese and dairy fat supplies continue to grow, while non-fat dry milk/dry milk (NFDM/SMP) shows growth for the second consecutive month.
Cheese and Dairy Fat Lead the Way
Cheese and dairy fat, which set export records in 2025, remain the main "stars" of US dairy exports. Cheese shipments increased by 11% year-over-year to 51,688 tons, slightly above the average monthly export level for 2025 (51,087 tons).
While Australia (+46%, +1,436 tons) remains a rising "star" for American cheese, sales to Latin America continue to drive export growth. The only notable surprise in January's cheese results was Japan. The volume of shipments to Japan declined year-over-year for the first time in almost a year—by 24% (-1,375 tons) in January. The next couple of months will show whether this was a temporary deviation or a more significant change in purchasing patterns.
Sales of American butter marked the ninth consecutive month of triple-digit year-over-year growth. The volume increased by 187% to 9,194 tons. The Middle East/North Africa region accounted for nearly half of this increase: January shipments to the region grew by 2,511 tons, indicating exponential growth compared to the previous year.
US exports of anhydrous milk fat (AMF) grew by 18% year-over-year (+685 tons) to 4,583 tons. This was one of the smallest increases in AMF over the past 18 months, primarily due to a very strong January 2025. Last January, American suppliers shipped a then-record 3,897 tons of AMF (this maximum was later surpassed in November and December 2025).
Another significant positive in January was non-fat dry milk NFDM/SMP, which increased by 19% (+8,992 tons). This marks the second consecutive month of significant growth in NFDM/SMP, with Southeast Asia leading consumption. US shipments to Southeast Asia grew by 62% (+6,450 tons) and increased by 57% (+12,129 tons) over the past two months. This is good news for American suppliers, although the growth comes against a backdrop of very weak volumes a year earlier.
Challenges Ahead
And this is not the only concerning signal. Although 2025 ended well and 2026 began on a high note, American suppliers face several significant counter-factors, the main one being the conflict in the Middle East. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz off the coast of Iran immediately restricted shipments to the region, especially affecting American cheese and butter. Depending on the duration of the conflict, the hostilities could drive global inflation through rising energy prices and other costs, negatively impacting global demand for dairy products.
Cheese and dairy fat, which set export records in 2025, remain the main "stars" of US dairy exports. Cheese shipments increased by 11% year-over-year to 51,688 tons, slightly above the average monthly export level for 2025 (51,087 tons).
While Australia (+46%, +1,436 tons) remains a rising "star" for American cheese, sales to Latin America continue to drive export growth. The only notable surprise in January's cheese results was Japan. The volume of shipments to Japan declined year-over-year for the first time in almost a year—by 24% (-1,375 tons) in January. The next couple of months will show whether this was a temporary deviation or a more significant change in purchasing patterns.
US exports of anhydrous milk fat (AMF) grew by 18% year-over-year (+685 tons) to 4,583 tons. This was one of the smallest increases in AMF over the past 18 months, primarily due to a very strong January 2025. Last January, American suppliers shipped a then-record 3,897 tons of AMF (this maximum was later surpassed in November and December 2025).
Another significant positive in January was non-fat dry milk NFDM/SMP, which increased by 19% (+8,992 tons). This marks the second consecutive month of significant growth in NFDM/SMP, with Southeast Asia leading consumption. US shipments to Southeast Asia grew by 62% (+6,450 tons) and increased by 57% (+12,129 tons) over the past two months. This is good news for American suppliers, although the growth comes against a backdrop of very weak volumes a year earlier.
Challenges Ahead
And this is not the only concerning signal. Although 2025 ended well and 2026 began on a high note, American suppliers face several significant counter-factors, the main one being the conflict in the Middle East. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz off the coast of Iran immediately restricted shipments to the region, especially affecting American cheese and butter. Depending on the duration of the conflict, the hostilities could drive global inflation through rising energy prices and other costs, negatively impacting global demand for dairy products.
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