The Dairy Fat and SMP Market in Russia Enters Uncertainty Amid Weak Demand

As of mid-April, current indicators are about 530 RUB/kg for Russian butter with 82.5% fat content and around 250 RUB/kg for SMP. Meanwhile, Belarusian butter remains at a higher level — about 570 RUB/kg. Despite the rise in SMP prices on international platforms, including CME and GDT, where quotes have increased by 14–30% in recent months, the Russian domestic market shows limited response to global trends.

A survey of market participants reveals a significant range of expectations: some players predict a moderate price increase, while a comparable share anticipates a decrease. Similar uncertainty is observed for SMP, with forecast ranges from 230 to 270 RUB/kg.

The key pressure factor remains weak consumer demand. According to processors' estimates, market supply exceeds actual needs, leading to stagnation in wholesale prices and active use of promotional mechanics in retail. Even seasonal factors, such as pre-Easter demand for butter, have only a short-term effect — prices quickly adjust downward after the holidays.

Additional pressure comes from imports from Belarus. In the first quarter of 2026, imports of drinking milk increased by 13%, and butter by 20% year-on-year, intensifying competition in the Russian market. Simultaneously, Belarusian producers are actively increasing exports due to restrictions on other sales channels.

Market participants also point to structural problems: the rise of counterfeit products, challenges with export development, and a decline in dairy fat consumption. According to one processor, "Dairy products essentially remain a deflator — the market is saturated, and producers are trying to sell volumes exceeding real demand."