Ukraine's Dairy Industry on the Brink: Farms May Begin Mass Closures by Summer
"We will not see mass livestock reduction and farm closures until May-June, when the 2025 feed supply runs out. With such high field operation costs in 2026, farmers will decide not to plant forage crops but to reduce livestock," says Elena Zhupynas.
Currently, there is no sharp decline in production, as farms continue to use previously formed feed reserves. However, this support is temporary.
"As of now, the situation in the industry remains the same as in late February, before the outbreak of war in Iran. But by autumn, the milk production situation may become critical," notes the expert.
The key pressure factor on the industry remains the rising cost of production. The increase in energy, fuel, and fertilizer prices, driven by the geopolitical situation, will fully impact farm economics in the coming weeks.
"Even with the current feed prices, which were grown when diesel was half the price and fertilizers were much cheaper, the price of milk from farms does not cover the production cost. It is expected to rise by 20–25%, at least," forecasts Elena Zhupynas.
Additionally, there is an increase in cattle exports, further reducing the domestic raw material base. This collectively heightens risks for processing and could lead to a milk shortage in the domestic market.
