Milk Will Remain India’s Main Source of Animal Protein Through 2070

Protein consumption in India could more than triple by 2070, while the dairy sector will retain its central place in the country’s food system. However, according to a report by FICCI and Asia Research & Engagement, further production growth will require higher animal productivity, lower methane emissions, an improved feed base, and support for millions of smallholder farms.

Source: Charting India’s Protein Transition, FICCI, CIFTI and Asia Research & Engagement, September 2026.

Protein demand will more than triple

India is entering a period of major dietary change. According to the modelling, average annual per capita protein consumption will increase from 9.5 kg in 2025 to approximately 30 kg in 2070. The increase will be driven by population and income growth, urbanisation, public nutrition programmes, and changing consumer preferences.

The report’s authors emphasise that these figures refer to the weight of protein contained in food, not the physical volume of milk, meat, eggs, or fish. Even a small per capita increase in a country of India’s scale translates into tens of millions of tonnes of additional demand.

Figure 1. Projected per capita protein consumption by source, 2000–2070. Source: ARE modelling.

India’s food system differs from markets with high levels of meat consumption. Dairy products and pulses will remain the main sources of protein. Eggs, poultry, and seafood will become increasingly important, while red meat will retain a relatively small share.

Figure 2. Total protein consumption by source, 2000–2070. Source: ARE modelling.

Dairy will retain its dominant position

Milk is already India’s largest source of animal protein and, according to the authors, will account for most of the growth ahead. By 2070, per capita consumption of milk protein could reach 13.1 kg per year. By comparison, protein from pulses - the second-largest category - will rise to 9.12 kg per person.

The report also states that total consumption of protein from milk will increase from less than 5 million tonnes in 2025 to 13.3 million tonnes in 2070. These figures require further verification: the per capita projection and the absolute figure shown in Figure 2 imply a higher aggregate volume. The 13.3 million-tonne figure should therefore be treated as an estimate cited by the report’s authors, rather than as an independently verified calculation.

The sector is already vast. Milk production increased from 146.3 million tonnes in 2014/15 to 239.3 million tonnes in 2023/24 - a rise of 63.6% over the decade. The report estimates current production at approximately 248 million tonnes per year. Bovine productivity also increased by 27.4% between 2014 and 2022.

Despite the rapid development of processing and consolidation across supply chains, Indian milk production still relies on smallholder farms. Around 72% of milk is supplied by small producers, many of whom keep only two or three animals. For rural households, livestock serves several functions at once, providing daily cash flow, nutrition, and financial resilience.

Growth is constrained by feed, water, and animal health

The main challenge is not simply to increase total output. India needs to produce more milk while using less feed, water, and energy, and at the same time reduce losses and its climate impact.

According to the data cited in the report, India faces an estimated green fodder deficit of 35.6%, a dry fodder deficit of 10.5%, and a 44% shortfall in concentrate feed ingredients. Climate change could intensify this problem: projected declines in wheat and maize yields will affect raw-material availability and the cost of livestock production.

Water is another challenge. Citing the National Dairy Development Board, the authors state that around 30% of India’s agricultural water use is linked to livestock. This estimate includes the water required to grow feed, making greater feed-production efficiency part of the dairy sector’s water strategy.

Other risks identified in the report include animal disease, poor husbandry, antibiotic use, antimicrobial resistance, product quality, and traceability. These factors affect not only environmental performance, but also productivity, milk losses, market access, and farmers’ incomes.

The business as usual pathway leads to a sharp rise in emissions

The report examines four pathways through 2070: continuation of the current trajectory, production-side emissions mitigation, demand diversification, and an integrated transition. These are not forecasts, but modelled pathways based on a set of long-term assumptions.

Figure 3. Comparison of four pathways for the development of India’s protein system. Source: ARE.

If current trends continue, annual emissions associated with protein production could reach 1.92 gigatonnes of CO2 equivalent in 2070. This is 7.7 times the estimated climate-safe level of 0.25 gigatonnes. Cumulative emissions above that threshold through 2070 would amount to 44.55 gigatonnes of CO2 equivalent.

Figure 4. Annual emissions under the business as usual pathway compared with the climate-safe level. Source: ARE modelling.

Figure 5. Cumulative emissions above the climate-safe threshold under the business as usual pathway. Source: ARE modelling.

A substantial share of the increase in emissions is linked to the continued dominance of milk. Growth in the consumption of lower-emissions pulses does not offset rising dairy and other animal-protein production. Under the model, milk will remain the largest contributor to emissions from the protein system in 2070.

Figure 6. Emissions by protein category under the business as usual pathway. Milk’s contribution is shown in grey. Source: ARE modelling.

Efficiency gains narrow the gap but do not close it

The second pathway assumes large-scale adoption of technologies and management measures on the production side. In dairy farming, this means higher productivity per cow, improved rations, lower enteric methane emissions, better manure management, stronger veterinary care, higher quality, and a more robust cold chain.

The model uses highly ambitious assumptions: a 70% reduction in emissions from enteric fermentation, manure, and feed by 2070, a transition to net-zero energy, and a 30% reduction in food loss and waste by 2035. Even under these conditions, annual emissions in 2070 would total 0.73 gigatonnes of CO2 equivalent - almost three times the safe threshold used in the report.

The model attributes the largest cumulative impact to ending deforestation, at 8.9 gigatonnes of avoided emissions, and mitigating enteric fermentation, at 8.8 gigatonnes. Changes in feed production contribute a further 2.9 gigatonnes, energy measures 2.2 gigatonnes, and manure management 1.2 gigatonnes.

Figure 7. Emissions trajectory under maximum technological improvement on the production side. Source: ARE modelling.

Demand diversification becomes a second lever

The third pathway supplements technological measures by gradually substituting alternative sources for part of conventional animal-protein demand. The model assumes substitution of around 10% of demand by 2035 and 35% by 2070. Traditional plant-protein sources, particularly pulses, continue to grow along the business as usual trajectory.

Under this pathway, annual emissions in 2070 decline to 0.50 gigatonnes of CO2 equivalent, while cumulative emissions above the climate threshold fall to 12.9 gigatonnes. However, this outcome requires the development of markets for plant-based, fermentation-derived, and cultivated proteins, lower costs, and new industrial infrastructure.

Figure 8. Emissions under the protein-demand diversification pathway. Source: ARE modelling.

Pulses remain one of India’s inherent advantages. By 2070, protein consumption from pulses could rise from 3.5 million to 9.3 million tonnes. In addition to direct consumption, chickpeas, peas, and lentils can be used to produce concentrates and isolates, as well as plant-based alternatives to dairy and egg products. According to the report, India currently imports almost 90% of its plant-protein isolates because it lacks sufficient domestic extraction and processing capacity.

The integrated pathway delivers the strongest outcome

The fourth pathway combines greater livestock-production efficiency, demand diversification, faster growth in the consumption of traditional plant proteins, and a cap on total demand consistent with a healthier diet.

Under this combination, annual emissions in 2070 decline to 0.30 gigatonnes of CO2 equivalent, while cumulative emissions above the safe level fall to 8.37 gigatonnes. This is the strongest of the pathways examined, although it still remains approximately 20% above the climate benchmark.

Figure 9. Emissions under the integrated transition pathway. Source: ARE modelling.

Figure 10. Cumulative excess emissions across all four pathways. Source: ARE modelling.

Table 1. Outcomes of the four pathways in 2070. Source: ARE modelling.

What the findings mean for the dairy industry

The authors do not propose restricting access to milk in India. On the contrary, improving access to adequate nutrition remains a central objective. The main conclusion is that future demand cannot be met simply by increasing animal numbers and resource use.

For dairy companies, the priorities are productivity per cow, feed quality, drought-resilient feed systems, animal health and welfare, methane reduction, manure management, traceability, and lower losses across the cold chain. These measures reduce both production costs and emissions per unit of output.

However, the costs of the transition cannot be shifted entirely onto farmers. In a sector where households with only a few animals produce most of the raw milk, new requirements introduced without finance, training, or changes in procurement practices could worsen conditions for the most vulnerable suppliers. The report calls on large processors, retailers, banks, and the government to help finance technology and reduce risks for smallholder farms.

For investors, the key question is which assets are being created today. Investment focused solely on expanding conventional production capacity could lock the sector into dependence on scarce feed, water, and high emissions for decades. An alternative is to finance dairy-herd productivity, resilient feed systems, cooling, processing, quality control, and new protein ingredients at the same time.

Limitations of the study

The report’s pathways should be understood as estimates of possible trajectories, not precise forecasts. The authors use ambitious assumptions regarding the pace of technology adoption, emissions reductions, and changes in consumer demand. The model focuses primarily on domestic consumption and does not fully account for export-oriented production. Imported processed protein ingredients, including whey and other dairy proteins, are not modelled separately.

Despite these limitations, the study illustrates the scale of the choices facing the world’s largest milk-producing country: demand for milk protein will continue to grow, but the economic sustainability of that growth will depend less on the number of animals than on productivity, herd health, feed and water efficiency, lower losses, and the industry’s ability to share the cost of modernisation with millions of small producers.

About the report

Charting India’s Protein Transition was prepared by the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FICCI), the Confederation of Indian Food Trade and Industry (CIFTI-FICCI), and Asia Research & Engagement (ARE). Published in September 2026, the study updates the 2023 model and examines the development of India’s protein system through 2070.

The calculations draw on FAO GLEAM data, Government of India statistics, livestock and fisheries datasets, UN population projections, and consultations with industry experts. To compare the pathways, the authors adapted parameters from the Science Based Targets initiative guidance on agriculture and land use to the Indian context.