Middle East Conflict Puts Key Global Dairy Export Routes at Risk
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran has direct implications for global dairy trade, as the conflict in the Middle East disrupts key export routes.
Iran itself is not a major importer of EU dairy products. In 2025, it imported dairy worth only €17 million, mainly whey. However, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz effectively blocks maritime exports to Iraq, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, and the eastern part of Saudi Arabia. Together, these markets imported €2.95 billion worth of dairy products in 2025.
Saudi Arabia has alternative import options via its western ports, such as Jeddah. In contrast, the other Gulf countries cannot be reached by sea if the Strait remains closed. This situation will primarily affect EU, New Zealand, and US exports of evaporated milk and cheese.
In addition, threats by Iran-aligned groups in Yemen to disrupt shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait pose risks to other dairy trade flows. This route is critical for EU dairy exports to Asia, which reached €3.3 billion in 2025 and accounted for 16.8% of total EU dairy exports. Disruptions would also affect New Zealand exports to the EU and the UK, which were valued at €310 million in 2025, representing 5.6% of New Zealand’s total dairy exports.
Saudi Arabia has alternative import options via its western ports, such as Jeddah. In contrast, the other Gulf countries cannot be reached by sea if the Strait remains closed. This situation will primarily affect EU, New Zealand, and US exports of evaporated milk and cheese.
In addition, threats by Iran-aligned groups in Yemen to disrupt shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait pose risks to other dairy trade flows. This route is critical for EU dairy exports to Asia, which reached €3.3 billion in 2025 and accounted for 16.8% of total EU dairy exports. Disruptions would also affect New Zealand exports to the EU and the UK, which were valued at €310 million in 2025, representing 5.6% of New Zealand’s total dairy exports.
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