China's New Tariffs on EU Dairy Products May Indirectly Impact Estonia

China's Ministry of Commerce announced the imposition of tariffs on European Union dairy products, including cream with a fat content over 10 percent, fresh cheese, grated cheese, processed cheese, blue cheese, and regular cheese. This decision followed an investigation suggesting that subsidies were harming Chinese producers.

Estonia's direct exports to China of these specific dairy products are minimal. Kristel Maidre from Estonia's Ministry of Regional Affairs and Agriculture noted that whey powder, a product Estonia does export to China, is not subject to these new tariffs. In 2022, Estonia exported €3 million worth of whey powder to China, and €1.4 million worth so far in 2023.

However, the indirect effects could be more significant. Estonia exported cream, fresh cheese, and various types of cheese primarily to Italy, Germany, and the Netherlands, with cheese alone accounting for nearly 49% of Estonia's dairy export value. If China's tariffs reduce the demand for EU dairy products in these countries, it may lead to decreased Estonian exports to these markets.

According to Statistics Estonia, the country exported €22.6 million worth of cream with a fat content above 10 percent, €42 million worth of fresh cheese, €22.8 million of grated cheese, €1.4 million of processed cheese, €0.5 million of blue cheese, and €122 million of regular cheese last year. These figures highlight the potential scale of impact if trade flows within the EU are affected by the Chinese tariffs.