US and Argentina Emerging as Leaders in Global Dairy Trade Shift
Rabobank recently highlighted a significant shift in the global dairy trade, noting that the United States and Argentina are well-positioned to capture a larger share of the market. This development comes as Europe faces increasing production constraints.
According to Rabobank, the global dairy trade has expanded by 11% between 2017 and 2025, reaching 101.2 billion kg in liquid milk equivalents. Cheese has been identified as a primary driver of this growth, with global cheese trade rising by 40% during the same period, amounting to 8.96 billion kg in 2025.
The United States and Argentina have both seen their exports double since 2017. Rabobank's senior dairy specialist, Tom Booijink, stated that the 'balance of power is shifting' in favor of these countries, due to their ability and willingness to increase production.
Despite Europe's continued importance, its role in future dairy supply is expected to be 'increasingly constrained' by stricter regulations, an aging farmer base, and limited capacity to further increase yields. In 2025, the EU accounted for 27% of global dairy exports, a decrease from nearly 30% in 2017.
The US grew its share of global exports to 13.5% in 2025 from 11.3% in 2017, while Argentina and Uruguay combined for an increase to 4.3% from 3%. Rabobank highlights the stronger potential for growth in the US and Argentina, noting less restrictive conditions.
In Argentina, a decline in production by 8% between 2022 and 2024 was followed by a 10% growth in 2025 and a further 7% increase in early 2026, driven by more favorable business policies. Much of this additional milk supply has been directed to Brazil.
The US's dairy sector growth is described as more predictable, supported by the largest-ever dairy herd, favorable cost structures, and significant investment in processing capabilities, particularly for cheese. US cheese capacity alone expanded by 6% in 2025.
On the demand side, China remains the largest importer, but shifts in purchasing patterns are redirecting exports toward the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and Brazil. These markets, along with the growing demand for cheese and whey, are expected to continue reshaping trade flows.
