Raw Milk Prices in Russia to Continue Declining Amid Surplus and Weak Demand — Dairy Trader
According to a survey of market participants, the current average weighted price for premium-grade raw milk (3.7%/3.2%, excluding VAT, "at the farm") is mainly in the range of 35–36 RUB/kg. However, the range of estimates remains significant: for most players, it exceeds 4 rubles per kilogram, reflecting high market volatility.
Expectations for the end of May show a shift towards further decline. More than a quarter of participants predict a price below 34 RUB/kg, while the share of those expecting growth above 38 RUB/kg remains minimal.
The key factor putting pressure on prices remains the structural surplus of raw milk. According to industry data, production exceeds domestic consumption, and accumulated dairy product stocks continue to exert pressure on the market. Despite a slowdown in growth rates in February, milk production in agricultural organizations increased by 2.8% for January–February 2026.
As noted by Sergey Kovalkov, Commercial Director of "Belrusproduct," the balance of supply and demand is disrupted in several areas. Whole milk production matches consumption levels, but retail price reductions do not stimulate additional demand. Meanwhile, significant stocks of cheese and butter remain in warehouses, lacking new sales markets.
An additional constraint for market unloading is export. Although some of the surplus raw materials are processed into powdered milk and subsequently sold abroad, this channel is limited by the capacities of drying enterprises in Russia and Belarus, as well as the capacity of the global market.
Amid worsening market conditions, pressure on small and medium-sized farms is increasing. According to market participants, their exit process has already begun, while large efficient enterprises maintain stability due to scale and access to financing.
A separate trend is the transformation of processing. The industry is gradually shifting towards large highly automated productions capable of producing 100–150 tons of products per day and reducing costs through scale. In such conditions, small processors risk losing competitiveness.
