Global Dairy Trade Growth Led by Cheese, Rabobank Reports
According to Rabobank's senior dairy specialist for Europe and Africa, Tom Booijink, the global dairy trade is experiencing a consistent growth rate of approximately 2% per year. In 2025, the total volume of global dairy trade is expected to reach 101.2 billion kilograms, marking an 11% increase since 2017.
The European Union continues to be the largest exporter, accounting for 27.5 billion kilograms of liquid milk equivalent (LME) by 2025, excluding trade within the EU itself. However, its dominance is gradually decreasing as the United States, Argentina, and Uruguay strengthen their positions in the global market. Notably, New Zealand holds the title of the largest single-country exporter, contributing 22% to the global dairy trade, while the US's share has grown from 11.3% in 2017 to 13.5% in 2025.
China remains the largest importer, but its reduced purchase levels have prompted exporters to focus on the Middle Eastern, Southeast Asian, and Brazilian markets. Cheese has emerged as the primary engine of growth in the dairy sector, contrasting with slower momentum in milk powders. Additionally, butter exports have surged due to increased US shipments, and whey continues to see rising demand as consumers seek protein-rich products.
The US and Argentina are well-positioned to drive future supply growth in the dairy sector, whereas European producers may face challenges due to tighter production constraints. In the Middle East, limited domestic dairy production capacity means that countries such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Oman are increasingly reliant on imports to meet demand, driven by rapid population growth, urbanization, and rising incomes. However, geopolitical tensions, such as the conflict in the Strait of Hormuz, add an element of risk to the stability of global dairy trade flows.
