180 Million Bags: Record Coffee Production to Increase Price Pressure

Production is expected to increase by approximately 8 million bags compared to the previous season. The market is already reacting to these expectations: prices for Arabica have fallen to a 15-month low, while Robusta has dropped to a 6.5-month low.

The key driver of growth is Brazil, where, according to Conab agency, coffee production in 2026 will increase by 17.2%, reaching a record 66.2 million bags.

The growth is ensured by an increase in both Arabica (+23.2%, to 44.1 million bags) and Robusta (+6.3%, to 22.1 million bags) harvests. Favorable weather conditions, including above-normal rainfall in key regions, further enhance expectations of a high yield.

Vietnam, the largest producer of Robusta, is also increasing supply. Exports in January rose by 38.3% year-on-year, with annual shipments reaching 1.58 million tons.

Production in the 2025/26 season may increase by 6% to 29.4 million bags, reinforcing the structural shift towards the cheaper Robusta segment.

Additional pressure on the market comes fr om the recovery of exchange stocks. According to ICE, Arabica stocks rose to 461,800 bags, and Robusta stocks to 4,662 lots after recent lows.

This creates a classic oversupply situation, wh ere prices fall even with sustained demand.

At the same time, the market receives partial support signals:

• coffee exports from Brazil in January decreased by 42.4%;
• production in Colombia fell by 34% in January.

However, these factors have not yet offset the global supply growth.