GB November Milk Deliveries Surge, Boosting Outlook for 2024/25 Season
Source: DairyNews.today
Milk deliveries in Great Britain for November reached 1,018 million litres, a 4.4% rise compared to the same month in 2023, as daily averages climbed to 33.95 million litres, according to the latest data.
Cumulative production for the April-November milk season hit 8,279 million litres, marking a modest 0.4% increase year-on-year. Robust deliveries since September, capped by November’s surge, have reversed the early-year lag and brought year-to-date figures into positive territory. The Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) noted that December's milk prices remained at elevated levels, boosting farmer confidence and encouraging higher output.
Favourable weather played a role, with drier-than-usual conditions in early November enabling cows to graze outdoors longer, conserving forage supplies for later in the season. Additionally, a trend toward autumn calving, as some farmers shift to an autumn-focused production cycle, has bolstered volumes.
Projections for the 2024/25 milk year remain optimistic, with AHDB forecasting total production of 12.43 billion litres, up 0.9% from the previous season. This reflects a continued upswing in supply despite challenges such as reports of mixed silage quality following wet weather earlier in the year.
The milk-to-feed price ratio also points to expansion, encouraging farmers to offset forage concerns with supplemental feed. However, market dynamics could shift as production growth increases the risk of oversupply. AHDB anticipates a potential correction in milk prices by spring as the seasonal flush approaches.
European markets have seen milk shortages in 2023, particularly in Ireland, but improving flows across the continent signal a possible easing of constraints. Commodity prices, which have remained firm throughout the year, appear to have peaked, suggesting a more balanced supply-demand dynamic heading into 2024.
Favourable weather played a role, with drier-than-usual conditions in early November enabling cows to graze outdoors longer, conserving forage supplies for later in the season. Additionally, a trend toward autumn calving, as some farmers shift to an autumn-focused production cycle, has bolstered volumes.
Projections for the 2024/25 milk year remain optimistic, with AHDB forecasting total production of 12.43 billion litres, up 0.9% from the previous season. This reflects a continued upswing in supply despite challenges such as reports of mixed silage quality following wet weather earlier in the year.
The milk-to-feed price ratio also points to expansion, encouraging farmers to offset forage concerns with supplemental feed. However, market dynamics could shift as production growth increases the risk of oversupply. AHDB anticipates a potential correction in milk prices by spring as the seasonal flush approaches.
European markets have seen milk shortages in 2023, particularly in Ireland, but improving flows across the continent signal a possible easing of constraints. Commodity prices, which have remained firm throughout the year, appear to have peaked, suggesting a more balanced supply-demand dynamic heading into 2024.
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