USDA Adjusts 2026 Milk Production and Price Projections
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has revised its projections for milk production and prices for 2026. According to the agency's June forecast, the expected milk production has been increased by 1.0 billion pounds, reaching a total of 236.4 billion pounds. This change is attributed to an upward revision in both the number of dairy cows and the milk yield per cow.
The average number of dairy cows is now expected to be 9.645 million, an increase of 25,000 head. Additionally, the milk yield per cow has been adjusted upward by 40 pounds, bringing it to 24,510 pounds.
Changes were also made to dairy export forecasts. The USDA now anticipates higher export volumes for cheese, butter, and dried whey products. On a milk-fat basis, exports for 2026 are projected at 20.6 billion pounds, while on a skim-solids basis, the forecast has been revised to 49.4 billion pounds.
Domestic use forecasts have been adjusted as well. The milk-fat basis domestic use is projected at 223.0 billion pounds, and the skim-solids basis is forecasted at 192.8 billion pounds.
On the pricing front, the USDA has revised its 2026 average price forecasts for several dairy products. The forecasts for cheddar cheese, nonfat dry milk, and dry whey have been lowered to $1.610, $1.700, and $0.660 per pound, respectively. In contrast, the butter price forecast has been increased to $1.740 per pound due to stronger-than-expected domestic use.
The milk class prices have also been updated. The forecast for Class III milk prices has been reduced to $16.60 per hundredweight, while the Class IV price is now expected to be $19.35 per hundredweight. The all-milk price for 2026 is projected to be $20.70 per hundredweight, a decrease of 55 cents from the previous forecast.
