New Zealand Dairy Farmers Advised to Prepare for Average Feed Season

New Zealand dairy farmers are being advised by AgFirst, a leading agricultural consultancy, to prepare for an average feed season in light of potential El Niño impacts. James Allen, Chief Executive of AgFirst, emphasized that the favorable conditions of the past season may not repeat, and it would be risky to assume otherwise. In the previous year, Waikato farmers experienced exceptional production, with an extra tonne of dry matter per hectare harvested compared to the average.

Currently, regional supplementary feed reserves are healthy. However, Allen warns against relying on consecutive record years for operational and feed planning. He recommends that producers base their seasonal feed budgets on average meteorological conditions and secure necessary supplements early.

AgFirst highlights December 1 as a critical 'trigger date' for farm decision-making. By assessing soil moisture profiles on this date, farmers can gain early warnings of potential summer feed deficits or drought conditions. This early planning allows farmers to make timely decisions, such as early cow culling or purchasing additional supplementary feed before market pressures increase prices.

The El Niño weather pattern is already affecting the East Coast of both North and South Islands, with parts of Canterbury experiencing significant soil moisture deficits. Some South Island farmers have been forced to irrigate during autumn and winter, leading to pressure on aquifers and local water restrictions.

While immediate changes to stocking rates are not required, heightened vigilance is necessary. Historically, resilient dairy operations make decisive management choices early, securing feed inputs and establishing operational triggers for the summer to protect margins against weather disruptions and commodity price fluctuations.