Modest global dairy growth amid trade shifts
Source: dairynews.today
The global dairy market is poised for modest supply growth in 2025, driven by steady production expansion and export demand, according to a new report by food and agribusiness banking specialist Rabobank.
The global dairy market is expected to experience a modest supply growth in 2025, primarily driven by steady production expansion and export demand, as reported by Rabobank. However, the slow growth rate is unlikely to result in surging stocks or general oversupply, meaning global dairy prices will likely remain high.
Dairy farm margins in Australia are poised to benefit from improving farm gate prices through 2025, high commodity returns, and a softer currency. Rabobank anticipates milk production in major dairy export regions such as the EU, US, New Zealand, and others to expand by 0.8% YOY for 2025, with a similar trend expected in early 2026.
China, on the other hand, is expected to see a continued decline in milk production for the second year in a row, with anticipated drops of 2.6% YOY, as farm gate milk prices have discouraged production increases.
Global demand appears to be on the rise outside of China, with US cheese exports reaching record heights in 2024, although potential trade barriers under the new Trump administration could pose challenges.
In Australia, despite a decline in milk production in late 2024, a slight yearly increase of 0.7% is forecasted for the 2025-26 season, driven by favorable conditions expected in key dairy regions.
