Moderate Growth in the Global Dairy Sector During 2025

Throughout 2025, the global dairy market landscape is set for moderate evolution with expectations of changes in the commercial sphere. According to a recent Rabobank report, a 0.8% increase in production is anticipated in key exporting regions.

This growth is driven by a gradual recovery in milk production in Europe and the United States, although hindered by factors such as trade barriers and price fluctuations.

In Europe and the United States, production increases reflect an improvement in profit margins that encourages growth, albeit limited. Conversely, Oceania and South America see a more significant recovery after previous declines. However, global growth below 1% indicates market stabilization without significant surplus accumulation.

China faces a 2.6% decrease in its dairy production, attributed to a reduction in cow numbers and unfavorable economic policies, potentially increasing import needs in a challenging domestic consumption context. Meanwhile, the United States and New Zealand experience a rise in exports, particularly in cheese and powdered milk sales.

In Argentina, dairy production recorded a 5.6% increase in January 2025, following the recovery trend fr om the last quarter of 2024. However, rising production costs and adverse weather conditions could lim it future growth. Furthermore, the increase in grain prices and the appreciation of the Argentine peso threaten the competitiveness of the country's dairy exports.

2025 is set to be a year of cautious growth for the global dairy market, marked by stable prices and a constantly changing commercial environment. The sector's focus is on China's demand, international trade policies, and producers' adaptability to a challenging economic environment.