Dairy Imports in Russia to Decrease by 9%, Production to Grow by 2% - 'Soyuzmoloko'

According to Artem Belov, the year 2025 has become a transitional period for the industry. Despite positive results in previous years, the growth in consumption of dairy products in Russia has slowed, and a decline is observed in several categories.

"We forecast that year-on-year consumption growth will be around zero, possibly minus 1%. However, the production of commercial milk will still show an increase of about 2%. A reduction in import volumes by about 9% will help balance the market situation," noted the head of 'Soyuzmoloko'.

In the first quarter of 2025, the consumption of dairy products decreased by 5%, but by October, sales volumes returned to last year’s levels.

Production growth amid weak demand has led to increased inventories in key categories such as cheese, butter, cream, and whole milk powder (WMP). Similar processes are observed in Belarus.

"This has resulted in a significant increase in inventories and a price adjustment for dairy products. The pressure on the market is intensifying," explained Artem Belov.

The head of 'Soyuzmoloko' also noted the accelerated decline in cattle numbers. Reasons include rising wages, a labor shortage, and tighter monetary policy. Some farms are forced to switch to other activities, creating risks for the stability of the raw material base.

According to the expert, the situation in 2026 will depend on the ruble's exchange rate, the policy of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, and the dynamics of real incomes of the population.

"If monetary policy remains tight and incomes do not increase, the recovery of consumption may slow down. Meanwhile, the industry retains potential for moderate production growth," he noted.