China’s Soybean Imports Surge to Record High Amid Trade Concerns
Source: DairyNews.today
China's soybean imports hit 8.09 million metric tons in October, marking a significant rush by buyers to secure supplies ahead of Donald Trump’s inauguration in early 2024, according to customs data analyzed by Reuters. As the world's largest soybean importer, China appears poised to achieve its highest annual soybean imports on record.
October's imports represent a four-year high for the month, up 56% from 5.18 million tons in the same period last year, as calculated from customs data released Thursday.
“October’s imports exceeded our initial forecast by 600,000 tons,” commented Rosa Wang, an analyst with Shanghai-based agro-consultancy JCI, citing increased shipments as Chinese processors responded to improved crush margins. The margin in Rizhao, a key processing hub, narrowed from a 600-yuan ($83.72) loss per ton in August to just a 75-yuan ($10.47) loss per ton in October.
In anticipation of potential trade tensions under the new administration, U.S. exporters moved quickly to push a record harvest to Chinese buyers before the election, sources say. "We still expect strong import volumes in the coming months, as buyers aim to secure stocks ahead of Trump taking office," Wang added.
Customs data show China’s total soybean imports for the first 10 months of 2024 reached 89.94 million tons, up 11.2% year-over-year and closely trailing last year’s total imports of 99.41 million tons. China’s all-time record was set in 2020, with 100.31 million tons.
Amid rising concerns over trade friction, some Chinese importers are beginning to reduce U.S. purchases scheduled for January, according to traders and analysts. President-elect Trump's campaign statements regarding possible tariffs are prompting speculation about a shift in import preferences.
Reflecting trade concerns, China's most active soymeal futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange surged 3.6% following Trump’s election win, with rapeseed meal futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange climbing 4.76%.
China’s strategy of diversifying soybean imports from Brazil, particularly since 2018, has bolstered its ability to manage supply chain risks and lessen potential impacts on food security if trade tensions with Washington escalate.
“October’s imports exceeded our initial forecast by 600,000 tons,” commented Rosa Wang, an analyst with Shanghai-based agro-consultancy JCI, citing increased shipments as Chinese processors responded to improved crush margins. The margin in Rizhao, a key processing hub, narrowed from a 600-yuan ($83.72) loss per ton in August to just a 75-yuan ($10.47) loss per ton in October.
In anticipation of potential trade tensions under the new administration, U.S. exporters moved quickly to push a record harvest to Chinese buyers before the election, sources say. "We still expect strong import volumes in the coming months, as buyers aim to secure stocks ahead of Trump taking office," Wang added.
Customs data show China’s total soybean imports for the first 10 months of 2024 reached 89.94 million tons, up 11.2% year-over-year and closely trailing last year’s total imports of 99.41 million tons. China’s all-time record was set in 2020, with 100.31 million tons.
Amid rising concerns over trade friction, some Chinese importers are beginning to reduce U.S. purchases scheduled for January, according to traders and analysts. President-elect Trump's campaign statements regarding possible tariffs are prompting speculation about a shift in import preferences.
Reflecting trade concerns, China's most active soymeal futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange surged 3.6% following Trump’s election win, with rapeseed meal futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange climbing 4.76%.
China’s strategy of diversifying soybean imports from Brazil, particularly since 2018, has bolstered its ability to manage supply chain risks and lessen potential impacts on food security if trade tensions with Washington escalate.
