BLACK SEA CEASEFIRE THAT DOESN’T SEEM TO EXIST

Kyiv: We agree. The maritime ceasefire begins now.

Moscow: We are ready to resume the “grain deal” after sanctions are lifted from Rosselkhozbank and other banks, and once the U.S. reconnects us to (mind you, the European) SWIFT. And that’s not all.

Kyiv: Moscow are manipulators trying to fool the U.S. Hit them, Trump.

Journalists: The White House has brokered a Black Sea ceasefire!

The key point: Both Ukrainian and Russian exports from the Black Sea are continuing without major issues — without any “official ceasefire” or “grain deals.”

Kyiv and Washington are talking about “security in the Black Sea.” Moscow is talking about the “grain deal”, which includes ship inspections in Istanbul. These used to cause major delays — delays Kyiv blamed on Russian inspectors.

To make the picture even more surreal, consider this: the Russian fertilizer and food exports that the U.S. now says it will “help facilitate” are already at record levels.

• Fertilizers: 44 million tonnes in 2024 (vs. 38 million in 2021)

• Grain: 71 million tonnes in the 2023/24 season (vs. 42 million in 2021/22)

Bottom line: Everyone seems to have agreed on different things. The base-case scenario — exports will continue as before. The Kremlin is unlikely to officially confirm any “Black Sea ceasefire.” And clearly, none of this brings us any closer to a full peace.