ACRA Expects Stabilization of Demand for Butter in Russia in 2026

According to him, fr om the end of March 2025, the increase in production volumes and stockpile accumulation began to exert downward pressure on butter prices. By October, this led to a recovery in consumption to 2024 levels. In 2026, ACRA estimates that price dynamics will help maintain demand for dairy products overall at levels close to 2025 figures or slightly higher.

In 2025, raw milk production in Russia increased by approximately 300 thousand tons, reaching 34.3 million tons. However, this increase in supply was accompanied by a decrease in domestic demand: dairy product consumption, in milk equivalent, fell by 1% to 31.7 million tons.

An additional factor putting pressure on the market was the dynamics of foreign trade and the rise in stockpiles. According to ACRA, by early November 2025, dairy product stocks reached 1.89 million tons, which is 40% higher than the 2024 level and 39% above the average over the past five years.

"As a result, a situation emerged wh ere the growing supply faced declining domestic demand and limited export opportunities, leading to the accumulation of unsold volumes," noted Anton Trenin.

The expert also anticipates that further increases in milk production will be limited. Constraining factors will include the lack of herd growth, weak demand dynamics from the population, and high stock levels. Meanwhile, raw milk production may increase at a moderate pace — by 0.5–1% per year — due to increased cow productivity against the backdrop of herd reduction.