USDA predicts further decline in milk production in Ukraine

The USDA highlights three key factors:

• reduction in the number of cows,

• challenges faced by industrial farms due to the ongoing war,

• low production efficiency in households, which remain a significant part of the Ukrainian dairy sector.

Consumption and Demographics

Analysts note that domestic consumption of dairy products may slightly increase in 2026. However, the rise in household incomes will be partially offset by population outflow, limiting the overall demand volumes.

Despite the decrease in raw milk, the processing sector shows positive expectations:

Cheese

• production will increase to 139 thousand tons (+4 thousand tons),

• exports will rise to 20 thousand tons (+4 thousand tons),

• imports will reach 45 thousand tons (+2 thousand tons).

The growth is attributed to stable domestic demand and partial recovery of external markets.

Butter

High external demand and attractive profitability support the industry:

• production — 73 thousand tons (+1 thousand tons),

• exports — 14 thousand tons (+1 thousand tons).

Skimmed Milk Powder (SMP)

• output — 33 thousand tons (+1 thousand tons),

• exports — 24 thousand tons (+1 thousand tons).

USDA experts emphasize that SMP and butter remain profitable alternatives to cheese production under current conditions.