Rising Costs in Ukraine Prompt Dairy Price Surge in 2026
Ukraine is facing a new wave of price increases in its dairy market at the start of 2026. Analysts predict that milk, butter, and fermented dairy products will see a price hike of 7-10% in January. This increase follows a series of price rises over the past year, where retail prices surged by 15-25%.
The primary reason for the continuous price increase is the rising costs of production. Key factors contributing to these costs include feed, energy, labor, transport, and packaging, which have all seen significant increases. Economist Volodymyr Chizh notes that producers are unable to absorb these heightened costs without passing them on to consumers.
Retail data as of December 11, 2025, reveals considerable variation in milk prices across different supermarket chains. The average price of milk with 2.6% fat content was reported at 56.98 UAH, with the lowest price for a 900 ml package at 33.99 UAH. These variations are influenced by factors such as sourcing strategies and promotions, rather than changes in production costs.
For consumers, the higher dairy prices exert additional pressure on household budgets. Many Ukrainian families consider dairy products essential, and persistent price increases may lead them to switch to cheaper brands or reduce their consumption, particularly among low-income households.
Despite the price increases, producers face ongoing challenges. Higher prices offer limited relief in covering costs and do not address underlying issues such as efficiency and energy use. Without investment and policy support, these cost pressures are likely to persist.
The anticipated price rise in early 2026 is part of a broader market adjustment. While producers aim to protect their margins, consumers are dealing with reduced purchasing power. The balance between affordability and sustainability remains precarious, with expectations that dairy prices may continue to rise beyond 2026.
