Course for Diversification: Transformation of Russia's Oil and Fat Sector

Correction After Records

According to the OleoScope analytical center's report, 2025 was a year of 'stabilization correction' for the industry. After the historical peak of 2024, when sunflower oil production reached 8.2 million tons, production volumes fell by 16% to 6.9 million tons. This was the lowest figure in the past three years, but experts do not see signs of a crisis, attributing the dynamics to a high base fr om previous periods and structural changes in crop rotation.

Despite the reduction in production, export potential remains high: more than 65% of the products are sent to external markets. By the end of 2025, foreign supplies are expected to reach 4.6 million tons. Although this is below last year's peak values (5.8 million tons), it allows Russia to maintain leadership in global trade, as confirmed by US Department of Agriculture forecasts.

Domestic Market: Saturation Lim it

The domestic sunflower oil market shows signs of deep saturation. Consumption within the country has stagnated at 2.4–2.5 million tons per year over a three-year cycle. With an overall self-sufficiency level of over 250% in vegetable oils, the key development vector for Russian companies remains expansion into friendly markets.

Buyer Rotation: India Retains Leadership, China Loses Ground

The export geography underwent significant changes in 2025:
• India remains the key importer (forecast — over 1 million tons), but the volume of purchases halved compared to 2024 due to high global prices, prompting New Delhi to temporarily limit contracting.
• Iran (952 thousand tons) took second place, pushing Turkey (912 thousand tons) to third.
• China dropped out of the top three buyers, indicating a redistribution of trade flows in the region.

Soybean Breakthrough and Import Substitution

The most dynamic segment was soybean processing. Over three years, soybean oil production grew by 16.8%, reaching 1.18 million tons. Key growth factors included:
1.  Record harvest: A soybean harvest of 8.96 million tons (compared to 7.1 million tons the previous year) allowed the industry to almost completely abandon imports of South American GMO beans.
2.  Genetic independence: Russia successfully reorients to exporting domestic products free from GMOs.

Although soybean oil exports in 2025 are projected at 650 thousand tons (below 2023–2024 levels), the decline in foreign sales is offset by growing domestic demand. Soybean oil consumption within the country increased by 20% over two years, reaching 297 thousand tons.