IDF: Global Milk Shortage Could Reach 30 Million Tons by 2030
According to estimates from the International Dairy Federation (IDF), the gap between global supply and demand for dairy products could reach 30 million tons by 2030. This was announced by Laurence Rycken, Director General of IDF (Belgium), during her presentation at the 2025 Dairy Olympics.
The milk shortage is being driven by a combination of population growth (expected to hit 10 billion by 2050), declining production in developed countries, and increasing demand for animal-based products from the rising middle class.
Production stagnation is being observed in the EU and the U.S.
Growth is occurring in India, Pakistan, African nations, and Latin America
Traditional exporters — EU, New Zealand, and Australia — are facing resource and environmental constraints
Rycken placed particular emphasis on the reallocation of trade flows: New Zealand's share in global exports is shrinking, while China and other Asian countries are ramping up local production. This shift increases risks to global supply chains, especially in segments like liquid milk and butter.
Production stagnation is being observed in the EU and the U.S.
Growth is occurring in India, Pakistan, African nations, and Latin America
Traditional exporters — EU, New Zealand, and Australia — are facing resource and environmental constraints
Rycken placed particular emphasis on the reallocation of trade flows: New Zealand's share in global exports is shrinking, while China and other Asian countries are ramping up local production. This shift increases risks to global supply chains, especially in segments like liquid milk and butter.
“We are facing not only a volume challenge, but also the need to preserve nutritional value and ensure the sustainability of production. The solutions must be global in design, but local in execution,” noted the head of IDF.
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