Heat stress in dairy farming 2050 can reach a loss of 30 billion US$ per year and a loss of 90 mill t of milk per year
Today Abdullah Raffie presented his Master thesis at Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel with the topic: "Economic Impact of Heat Stress on Global Dairy Industry: An Analysis for 2020 and 2050".
This followed the great work of Normand St-Pierre 2003 and was connected to the IDF working group on heat stress guided by Israel Flamenbaum and Snorri Sigurdsson. International Dairy Federation | Fédération Internationale du Lait.
Here are Abdullah Raffie results in a nutshell:
1. 2020 = 13 billion US$ Loss – Heat stress cost the global dairy industry about 13 billion US$ and 50 million tons of milk in 2020.
2. With climate change, temperature will rise until 2050 in all countries and with that the THI Temperature Humidity Index. This will cause even more heat stress compare to today.
3. 2050 = 30 billion US$ Loss– the losses may rise to 30 billion US$ and 90 million tons of milk. This milk volume almost the US milk production today.
SO WHAT FOR THE DAIRY INDUSTRY
1. Heat stress mitigation strategies are a great opportunity for dairy farmers and dairy processors ensuring milk produced.
2. Heat stress mitigation strategies are a great opportunity for farm input companies to develop new solutions. In my view fans/ soakers are just the starting point. I assume with modifications in Breeds, housing, forage production etc. we will see much more ways in the future.
3. Studies like this are so important to know what the size of the price can be. Thanks Lely and VES-Artex for supporting this study that helps the whole dairy industry.
Thanks Abdullah Raffie for the great work and a thesis that had already a big impact.
It has been amazing to see your personal growth starting as a veterinarian from Pakistan in the Master of Dairy Science and moving step by step into the area of farm economics, data, models and project management. Well done!!!
Here are Abdullah Raffie results in a nutshell:
1. 2020 = 13 billion US$ Loss – Heat stress cost the global dairy industry about 13 billion US$ and 50 million tons of milk in 2020.
2. With climate change, temperature will rise until 2050 in all countries and with that the THI Temperature Humidity Index. This will cause even more heat stress compare to today.
3. 2050 = 30 billion US$ Loss– the losses may rise to 30 billion US$ and 90 million tons of milk. This milk volume almost the US milk production today.
1. Heat stress mitigation strategies are a great opportunity for dairy farmers and dairy processors ensuring milk produced.
2. Heat stress mitigation strategies are a great opportunity for farm input companies to develop new solutions. In my view fans/ soakers are just the starting point. I assume with modifications in Breeds, housing, forage production etc. we will see much more ways in the future.
3. Studies like this are so important to know what the size of the price can be. Thanks Lely and VES-Artex for supporting this study that helps the whole dairy industry.
Thanks Abdullah Raffie for the great work and a thesis that had already a big impact.
It has been amazing to see your personal growth starting as a veterinarian from Pakistan in the Master of Dairy Science and moving step by step into the area of farm economics, data, models and project management. Well done!!!
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