Dairy Markets Looking for Direction

Two GDT events remain before Trump's tariffs hit, presenting a critical opportunity for order fulfillment, according to an NZX analyst. The Global Dairy Trade auction kicked off the 2026 New Zealand dairy season with mixed price movements and significant signals from the European market.

The recent auction witnessed a 1.6% drop in the GDT index, largely due to declines in whole milk powder by 3.7% and skim milk powder by 1.1%. Notably, buttermilk powder saw the largest decrease at 6.1%, with cheddar following at 4.2%. Conversely, mozzarella prices rose by 2.3%, while anhydrous milk fat increased by 1.4%, slightly closing the gap with butter.

EU dairy markets faced challenges as notable declines in milk production were reported in Belgium (down 3.9%), Germany (down 2.3%), and Spain (down 2%). Crickett attributes these decreases to unfavorable weather and the bluetongue virus, which could continue to elevate EU product prices.

The analyst highlighted the impending Trump tariffs on non-Chinese imports, effective after a 90-day pause, as a pivotal moment for traders to secure orders and avoid disruption in global dairy trade.