China Dairy Products importation Jan-Aug 2023 decreased 8.5%
Source: The DairyNews
From Jan to Aug 2023 China import dry milk products 1.47 Million Tons , decreased 11.8%, among them milk powder (SMP and WMP) 0.61 Mt (-23.6% compared same period 2022), baby milk powder 0.16 Mt (-3.7%).
Sam (史枢卿) Shi
Analyst at the Chinese dairy market
Analyst at the Chinese dairy market
But Whey products increased 17.4% at 0.43 mt, cheese increased 18.8% to 0.12 mt. All dry milk products convert to milk equivalent raw milk using 1:8 plus import liquid milk 54M t the total ME (Milk quivalent) is 12 million tons , deceased 8.5%.
I estimated cheese, cream and protein products import will continue growth, milk powder and whey products will decreased for the remain months of this year. SMP and WMP import quantity will be close to 0.8 Mts, baby milk powder will be at 0.23 Mts of whole 2023.
China milk consumption is stable or lower decreased, milk powder and baby powder market will be more local products. Local milk production increased 7.2% of this year Jan to Sep accrording China national statistics. But industry statistic report growth only 3.8% from Jan to Aug this year compared 2022.
Dairy farms economic is the worst year of last 40 years, Ningxia province report 30 farms had quit, estimated another 70 farms will be backrupt in this year among total 350 dairy farms of this province (most these farm has about 1000 cows) . The backrupt dairy farms mostly are recent 5 years new build farms as the heifer purchased price is about 4500 USD during 2020-2021.
This year (Jan to Aug) import heifers decreased 49% to 113,000 heads.
Due to more than half farms loss profit, alfalfa hay import quantity decreased 37% to 0.65 Mts (Jan to Aug) among them 88% come from USA. Imported oaten hay decreased 63% to 39,600 tons, all from Australia.
I estimated cheese, cream and protein products import will continue growth, milk powder and whey products will decreased for the remain months of this year. SMP and WMP import quantity will be close to 0.8 Mts, baby milk powder will be at 0.23 Mts of whole 2023.
China milk consumption is stable or lower decreased, milk powder and baby powder market will be more local products. Local milk production increased 7.2% of this year Jan to Sep accrording China national statistics. But industry statistic report growth only 3.8% from Jan to Aug this year compared 2022.
Dairy farms economic is the worst year of last 40 years, Ningxia province report 30 farms had quit, estimated another 70 farms will be backrupt in this year among total 350 dairy farms of this province (most these farm has about 1000 cows) . The backrupt dairy farms mostly are recent 5 years new build farms as the heifer purchased price is about 4500 USD during 2020-2021.
This year (Jan to Aug) import heifers decreased 49% to 113,000 heads.
Due to more than half farms loss profit, alfalfa hay import quantity decreased 37% to 0.65 Mts (Jan to Aug) among them 88% come from USA. Imported oaten hay decreased 63% to 39,600 tons, all from Australia.
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