Brazilian Milk Prices Rebound in June Amid Seasonal Changes
The Brazilian milk market experienced a notable shift in June, following a period of declining prices in May. During this month, key indicators reflected an upward trend, suggesting a more balanced supply and demand environment amid the off-season.
The industrial sector showed significant recovery with UHT milk prices rising by 1.1% compared to May. Spot milk demonstrated an even more pronounced increase, registering a 6.8% gain. Additionally, powdered milk continued its positive trajectory, increasing by 0.6% and reaching the highest price level since June 2025.
In contrast, mozzarella prices remained stable at R$ 35.10 per kilogram, indicating that some market segments have reached equilibrium despite overall price improvements.
While the industrial sector showed clear signs of price appreciation, producers experienced a stable environment. Conseleites projections indicated minor fluctuations across states, with Santa Catarina seeing the highest projected increase of 1.8%, followed by Paraná at 1.6% and Minas Gerais at 0.5%. Rio Grande do Sul was projected to see a slight decrease of 0.1%, aligning with an overall balance in supply and demand.
Another significant factor for the dairy chain was the reduction in animal feed costs. In June, corn prices fell by 3.3%, and soy meal prices decreased by 3.1%. There were also declines in livestock prices, with fattened cattle dropping by 2.8% and calves by 0.9% compared to May.
On a macroeconomic level, the period was marked by the depreciation of the Brazilian real against the dollar. Concurrently, the projected GDP growth for 2026 rose from 1.89% to 1.98%, indicating a more favorable outlook for economic activity.
These developments in June indicate a notable shift for the dairy sector, with price recovery, stable projections for producers, and reduced feed costs suggesting a return to more balanced market conditions after previous pressures.
