AHDB Forecasts Lower UK Livestock Production
The Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) has updated its Agri Market Outlooks for the beef and lamb, dairy and pork industries. The analysis is intended to help levy payers assess market conditions relevant to their businesses.
Great Britain’s milk output is expected to fall by 2.2% in the 2026/27 season. AHDB also projects a further 1.1% reduction in the first half of 2027/28. Forage inventories are low, cow numbers are declining and production costs are increasing. Disease risks are also cited as a factor that could limit output, particularly if milk prices do not rise enough to support production.
UK beef production is forecast at 896,000 tonnes in 2027, down 0.8% from the expected 2026 level. Heavier carcases are projected to compensate for only part of the reduction in cattle throughput.
The sheep outlook records a continuing reduction in supply. Sheep-meat production is forecast to decrease by 2.4% to 262,000 tonnes in 2027, as slaughter numbers fall and the breeding flock contracts. AHDB identifies bluetongue as a downside risk to the projection.
Dairy and pork production are also expected to decline in 2027. Breeding herds in both sectors are shrinking amid challenges to farm profitability. AHDB says the war in the Middle East and other factors are contributing to higher production costs.
Trade is expected to remain active. Beef imports are forecast to rise by 3% in 2026, with additional volumes concentrated in the second half of the year. Exports are also projected to increase by 3%, following a strong start to the year. The dairy and pork outlooks are available from 14 October, while the beef and lamb reports are due on 16 October.
