We Are Facing a Bearish Dairy Market

Dairy markets are entering a bearish phase, influenced by oversupply and diverging short-term expectations. As countries like New Zealand, Australia, and Uruguay anticipate record milk flows, and Argentina regains strength after previous declines, global demand remains uncertain. This uncertainty augurs continued pressure on prices into the fourth quarter of 2025.

Factors such as abundant liquidity and high volatility have characterized the recent weeks in the dairy products market. While some market participants anticipate a rebound based on traditional fourth-quarter boosts, others justify recent declines, foreseeing extended depreciation pressures.

Global Dairy Trade

This week presented a pivotal moment with the latest Global Dairy Trade (GDT) auction. Speculations about the last quarter reveal a market oversaturation concern, potentially affecting supply-demand dynamics if the expected demand returns.

In the context of regional developments, favorable spring conditions boost milk production prospects in New Zealand and Uruguay. Meanwhile, Argentina's recovery suggests positive business conditions, though technological advancements also play a significant role.