Washington Supports Black Sea Shipping Security and Russian Agri-Export Access in Renewed Diplomatic Push
According to a March 25 statement by the White House, Washington and Kyiv reached an agreement to maintain secure shipping corridors in the Black Sea. The parties agreed to refrain from using commercial vessels for military purposes and to uphold a non-aggression framework for maritime activity. Importantly, both sides also committed to preparing mechanisms to prevent strikes on energy infrastructure within both Russia and Ukraine.
The talks included support for third-party involvement to facilitate implementation of these maritime and energy agreements.
Simultaneously, the U.S. has assured Moscow of assistance in restoring access to global markets for Russian grain and fertilizer exports. Measures discussed include reducing maritime insurance premiums, improving access to international ports, and enabling smoother payment processing. The Kremlin emphasized that full implementation would require lifting sanctions on key institutions such as Rosselkhozbank, as well as reconnecting Russian exporters to the SWIFT financial messaging system and associated trade financing and insurance frameworks.
Black Sea Trade: A Resilient Corridor
Despite the ongoing conflict, Black Sea trade has demonstrated resilience. Combined exports of grain from Ukraine, Russia, and Romania via the Black Sea totaled 6.4 million metric tons in February 2025. Of this, Ukraine contributed 3.5 million mt, Russia 2.1 million mt, and Romania 700,000 mt. These figures nearly match pre-war volumes seen in January 2022.
Russian grain exports in Q1 2025 have grown 10% year-over-year, reaching 24.48 million mt compared to 22.29 million mt in the same period of 2024. The majority of shipments were made using Panamax vessels, followed by Supramaxes and Handysizes, according to S&P Global’s Commodities at Sea data.
Volatility in Freight and Energy Logistics
Meanwhile, the shipping and freight sectors remain volatile. The cost of transporting a 135,000 mt crude cargo from the Black Sea to the Mediterranean reached $14.86/mt on March 24—up from $9.12/mt at the beginning of the year, and more than double the pre-war average of $6.35/mt.
Ukraine continues to export dry bulk cargoes through an alternative coastal corridor near Odesa, which replaced the former UN-brokered grain export initiative terminated in July 2023. However, recent attacks on merchant vessels have reignited concerns over regional security, with BIMCO warning in late 2024 that such risks threaten 1% of global dry bulk capacity and could exert upward pressure on global food prices.
Fertilizer Exports Maintain Momentum
Despite sanctions, Russian fertilizer exports have faced minimal disruption. In 2024, the country exported over 14 million mt of nitrogen-based fertilizers, up 6% from 2021 volumes, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence.
The series of agreements and U.S. diplomatic engagement signal a potential reset in Black Sea logistics and agri-trade, with implications for global food security, inflation control, and energy stability. However, much hinges on whether structural sanctions relief materializes and if ceasefire terms are upheld in practice.
