Australian Milk Output Holds at 8.3 Billion Litres Despite Climatic Setbacks, Outlook for New Season Remains Cautious
Despite the sector’s resilience, analysts warn of a sluggish start to the 2025–26 season, citing subdued farmgate prices and a challenging operating environment.
“Based on trends already observed this year, we anticipate national production to decline by up to 2% in the next financial year,” said Eliza Redfern, industry analyst at Dairy Australia. “This would place the national milk pool in the range of 8.1 to 8.3 billion litres, though these figures are subject to change as new data becomes available.”
The outlook reflects a diminished appetite for expansion among dairy farmers, driven by economic uncertainty and climatic volatility. Farm industry representatives have voiced concern that structural pressures—including weak price signals and input cost volatility—may prompt a sharper contraction in supply.
If realised, the projection would keep milk output above the low of 8.125 billion litres recorded in FY 2022–23, which remains the smallest pool in recent history.
The report highlights the sector’s resilience, but also underlines the need for strategic adaptation amid shifting climate patterns and market pressures.
