USDA Report Reveals Decline in Dairy Replacement Heifers

A long-anticipated USDA report into cattle numbers has revealed a 0.9% decline in dairy replacement heifers at the start of the year. In January 2025, there were only 3.914 million replacement heifers in the national herd – compared to last year’s 3.951 million, marking the lowest stock levels since 1978.

Meanwhile, the number of heifers expected to calve also fell by 0.4% versus 2024, to just 2.5 million head. "A lack of available heifers is likely to keep milk production growth constrained, even as margins persist at levels that should encourage expansion," explained Quarterra’s Monica Ganley for the Milk Producers Council.

On the other hand, the number of dairy cows slightly increased compared to last year, reaching 9.35 million head versus 3.46 million in 2024. The 2025 margin over feed is expected to remain higher than historical levels, at $13.37/cwt.