USDA: the all-milk price forecast for 2024 is more optimistic, standing at $20.95 per cwt
Source: The DairyNews
The USDA has revised its milk production forecast for 2024, citing a decrease in expected output per cow as the primary factor. The February World Ag Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report indicates a 1 million lbs. reduction in the milk production forecast for 2024, bringing it to 228.2 billion lbs. This figure is slightly higher than the 226.6 billion lbs. estimated in February 2023.
On a positive note, butter price forecasts for 2024 experienced an uptick, rising by 10.5 cents to $2.77 per lb. This increase is attributed to a more rapid pace of domestic use during the fourth quarter of 2023, extending into 2024. Growth in fat basis exports is anticipated, particularly in butter and cheese, positioning the U.S. as a competitive player in the international market.
Skim-solids basis domestic use witnessed an increase, driven by higher-than-expected disappearance in the fourth quarter of 2023. However, skim-solids exports were adjusted downward to align with robust domestic prices, fueled by strong domestic demand.
Cheese, butter, nonfat dry milk (NDM), and whey prices for 2024 were all elevated due to recent price strength, tighter milk supplies, and increased domestic use. The Class III and Class IV prices for 2024 experienced substantial increases, with Class III reaching $17.10 per cwt (up $1 from the previous month) and Class IV rising to $20.20 per cwt (an increase of 85 cents).
The all-milk price estimate for 2023 was revised down to $20.48 per cwt, based on reported data through December. However, the all-milk price forecast for 2024 is more optimistic, standing at $20.95 per cwt, reflecting a 95-cent increase from the previous month's projection. This positive trajectory in all-milk prices suggests a more encouraging outlook for the industry in the coming year.
Skim-solids basis domestic use witnessed an increase, driven by higher-than-expected disappearance in the fourth quarter of 2023. However, skim-solids exports were adjusted downward to align with robust domestic prices, fueled by strong domestic demand.
Cheese, butter, nonfat dry milk (NDM), and whey prices for 2024 were all elevated due to recent price strength, tighter milk supplies, and increased domestic use. The Class III and Class IV prices for 2024 experienced substantial increases, with Class III reaching $17.10 per cwt (up $1 from the previous month) and Class IV rising to $20.20 per cwt (an increase of 85 cents).
The all-milk price estimate for 2023 was revised down to $20.48 per cwt, based on reported data through December. However, the all-milk price forecast for 2024 is more optimistic, standing at $20.95 per cwt, reflecting a 95-cent increase from the previous month's projection. This positive trajectory in all-milk prices suggests a more encouraging outlook for the industry in the coming year.
