The Looming Threat of Avian Influenza: An Expert's Insight
Source: dairynews.today
An interview with Spanish epidemiologist Lucas González on the spread of avian influenza and the potential global risks it poses.
The economic impact of avian influenza is being felt keenly in the United States, where eggs can cost as much as $8 a dozen—a result of the avian influenza outbreak that has led to the culling of about 168 million domestic birds since 2022. The disease has also begun to spread to other species, with nearly 1,000 dairy herds infected as of March 2024, leading to over 70 human cases, primarily among farmworkers. Spanish epidemiologist Lucas González shares his concerns about the virus, emphasizing the potential for it to mutate and affect humans more broadly, transforming from a panzootic—a pandemic among animals—to a possible human pandemic.
The situation in the U.S. is exacerbated by the complex interplay of local and federal governance, which complicates decisive actions like culling infected herds at the outbreak's onset. González explains how bird flu spreads across species through various means, from waterbird feces to direct animal contact, and notes the risk to humans through prolonged exposure to aerosolized virus in high viral environments, such as farms, which could lead to more frequent transmissions. The absence of significant recent evidence for human-to-human transmission of H5N1 suggests that the threat remains contained—for now.
However, the virus's capacity for mutation means each animal-to-human transmission is a chance for the virus to adapt further. With the potential for a global pandemic always present, González underscores the lack of adequate preparation, pointing to the need for practical strategies and protective resources, such as vaccines and proper respiratory gear, particularly for essential workers. González's warning that, "The World Health Organization and all the experts take it as a given that pandemics are not a matter of if; they are a matter of when. It's like rain in Scotland. It's going to happen."
The situation in the U.S. is exacerbated by the complex interplay of local and federal governance, which complicates decisive actions like culling infected herds at the outbreak's onset. González explains how bird flu spreads across species through various means, from waterbird feces to direct animal contact, and notes the risk to humans through prolonged exposure to aerosolized virus in high viral environments, such as farms, which could lead to more frequent transmissions. The absence of significant recent evidence for human-to-human transmission of H5N1 suggests that the threat remains contained—for now.
However, the virus's capacity for mutation means each animal-to-human transmission is a chance for the virus to adapt further. With the potential for a global pandemic always present, González underscores the lack of adequate preparation, pointing to the need for practical strategies and protective resources, such as vaccines and proper respiratory gear, particularly for essential workers. González's warning that, "The World Health Organization and all the experts take it as a given that pandemics are not a matter of if; they are a matter of when. It's like rain in Scotland. It's going to happen."
