Price Variability of Milk in Alegrete Supermarkets

Consumers in Alegrete, a city in Brazil, have observed considerable differences in milk prices on supermarket shelves. A recent survey showed that the price for a one-liter box of milk, whether whole, skimmed, or lactose-free, ranges from R$ 4.89 to R$ 7.39, marking a price difference of up to R$ 2.50 for similar products.

This price variation is attributed to multiple factors within the milk production and supply chain, including industrial costs, logistics, taxes, brand, and product type. These elements combine in various ways, leading to noticeable price differences even for similar products placed side by side.

The pricing begins with the amount paid to milk producers. The Rio Grande do Sul Milk Producers/Industry Council (Conseleite/RS) has projected the price of milk per liter for July 2026 at R$ 2.5005, a 2.98% increase from the R$ 2.4281 forecast for June. The actual price for June was R$ 2.4320, slightly higher than the R$ 2.4302 recorded in May, showing a minor variation of 0.07%.

According to Kaliton Prestes, coordinator of Conseleite, the market showed stability in the first half of the year. However, there are concerns about this stability continuing. Farmers and industry representatives have expressed worries about excessive rainfall in the region, which threatens the growth of winter pastures and summer grazing areas. This could impact silage production and the availability of feed for livestock, potentially raising production costs.

It is crucial to note that the price set by Conseleite serves as a reference for payments to producers and does not directly and immediately affect retail prices. Nonetheless, experts warn that if adverse weather conditions persist, production costs may increase, potentially impacting consumer prices over time.