Poland Shifts Focus to New Dairy Markets as China Cuts Imports
Source: DairyNews.today
Poland’s dairy exports to China have significantly declined in recent years, and the outlook remains bleak, industry analysts say.
The share of Chinese dairy imports from Poland dropped from 6.7% in 2022 to just 1.8% in 2023, according to independent analyst Janusz Piechociński, as reported by local outlet PortalSpozywczy. While the near-term outlook is unpromising, Piechociński noted that China still presents some opportunities for growth in certain dairy segments.
Szymon Borucki, spokesperson for the Polmlek Group, warned that China may fully transition away from dairy imports by the end of the decade, signaling a major shift in the global dairy market.
Declining Exports to China
In the first half of 2024, Poland’s dairy exports to China were valued at US$34.4 million, a 41% drop compared to the same period last year, official data revealed.
This decline is part of a broader trend. In 2021, China imported a historic 3.94 million tonnes of dairy products, but the figure has steadily declined in the subsequent years. Last year, imports fell 12% to 2.9 million tonnes, valued at US$13 billion, according to China’s National Bureau of Statistics. The decline accelerated in 2024, with the first half of the year seeing a further 16.3% drop in dairy imports, amounting to 1.31 million tonnes.
New Zealand remains the largest supplier to China, with exports valued at US$2.8 billion, down 14% year-on-year. The Netherlands saw an even steeper decline, with exports dropping 45% in the first half of 2024 to US$768 million.
China’s Push for Self-Sufficiency
China’s growing emphasis on achieving self-sufficiency in dairy production is expected to have a profound impact on global dairy trade. “It is inevitable that China will become an exporter rather than an importer of dairy products,” Borucki said.
Given this shift, Polish dairy exporters are being urged to diversify their markets or explore niche segments to mitigate the impact of China’s reduced demand for imports. Despite the decline in overall imports, certain areas of the Chinese dairy market still present growth opportunities.
Opportunities for Specialized Dairy Products
China continues to be a significant importer of specialized dairy products, such as whey for animal feed, WPC protein, lactose, and, starting next year, lactoferrin. These sectors are expected to see the greatest potential for growth, offering Polish exporters a way to maintain a presence in the Chinese market despite broader challenges.
Szymon Borucki, spokesperson for the Polmlek Group, warned that China may fully transition away from dairy imports by the end of the decade, signaling a major shift in the global dairy market.
Declining Exports to China
In the first half of 2024, Poland’s dairy exports to China were valued at US$34.4 million, a 41% drop compared to the same period last year, official data revealed.
This decline is part of a broader trend. In 2021, China imported a historic 3.94 million tonnes of dairy products, but the figure has steadily declined in the subsequent years. Last year, imports fell 12% to 2.9 million tonnes, valued at US$13 billion, according to China’s National Bureau of Statistics. The decline accelerated in 2024, with the first half of the year seeing a further 16.3% drop in dairy imports, amounting to 1.31 million tonnes.
New Zealand remains the largest supplier to China, with exports valued at US$2.8 billion, down 14% year-on-year. The Netherlands saw an even steeper decline, with exports dropping 45% in the first half of 2024 to US$768 million.
China’s Push for Self-Sufficiency
China’s growing emphasis on achieving self-sufficiency in dairy production is expected to have a profound impact on global dairy trade. “It is inevitable that China will become an exporter rather than an importer of dairy products,” Borucki said.
Given this shift, Polish dairy exporters are being urged to diversify their markets or explore niche segments to mitigate the impact of China’s reduced demand for imports. Despite the decline in overall imports, certain areas of the Chinese dairy market still present growth opportunities.
Opportunities for Specialized Dairy Products
China continues to be a significant importer of specialized dairy products, such as whey for animal feed, WPC protein, lactose, and, starting next year, lactoferrin. These sectors are expected to see the greatest potential for growth, offering Polish exporters a way to maintain a presence in the Chinese market despite broader challenges.
