Cocoa Crisis Intensifies: Chocolate Prices Surge as Manufacturers Turn to Alternatives

According to October statistics, the cost of chocolate in Kazakhstan rose by 2.3% in a month. In September, the increase was 4.8%, marking the second-largest monthly price jump in recorded history (the record is +5% in November 2015).

Annual inflation in the segment reached a historical maximum: +35.8% by October 2024, compared to +18% the previous year.

The rise in chocolate prices is a global trend linked to an unprecedented cocoa bean shortage. Industry agencies estimate that the raw material shortage has led to accelerated chocolate price increases in the U.S. — almost +30% year-on-year by Halloween 2025.

The share of chocolate in holiday sales in the U.S. has decreased fr om 52% to 44% as consumers switch to cheaper sweets and manufacturers to cocoa-free products.

According to FoodNavigator, major international brands are revising recipes to reduce natural cocoa content. This leads to legal restrictions: such products no longer meet the classical definition of 'chocolate.'

Companies are already changing packaging:

• Nestlé removed the word 'chocolate' from white KitKat;

• Pladis did the same with the Digestives line.

Manufacturers are now forced to use terms like:
'confectionery product,' 'chocolaty,' 'chocolate-flavored.'

Similar changes have been applied for years in the dairy market, wh ere products with fat substitutes are labeled as 'dairy' or 'dairy-containing.'

Experts note: in the long term, traditional chocolate may become a niche 'premium product,' while the mass market will shift towards chocolate-containing or entirely cocoa-free alternatives.

Domestic processing is under pressure: chocolate and chocolate confectionery production for January-October 2025 amounted to 72.6 thousand tons, which is 2.9% less than a year earlier. In 2024, the decline was 14.8%.

Manufacturers met domestic demand and export only 38.9%, compared to 42.8% a year earlier.

Imports increased by 12.8% over the year, exceeding 100.5 thousand tons from January to September.

Domestic sales increased by 3.5%, reaching 131.5 thousand tons, and consumption grew to 477 g per capita on average for the first half of 2025 (+1.9%).

In the first nine months of 2025, Kazakhstan imported 66 thousand tons of chocolate and finished products containing cocoa, worth USD 340.2 million.

Dynamics compared to the same period in 2024:

• volume: +8.9%,

• value: +37.3%,

• price per ton: increased by 26.1% — from USD 4,100 to USD 5,200.

The import structure is as follows:

• Russia — 46.1 thousand tons (70% of imports), +33% in price, to USD 4,400.

• Ukraine — 6.1 thousand tons, highest price: USD 7,200.

• Turkey — 5.1 thousand tons, price: USD 6,200.

• Germany — 2.7 thousand tons, price: USD 7,100.

• China — 1.2 thousand tons, lowest price: USD 2,700; supply volume increased 3.6 times.

The top five countries formed 92.6% of the total imports (USD 301 million).