Ice Cream Market in Kazakhstan – First Half of 2024
Source: The DairyNews
Until last year, the ice cream market in the three most developed EAEU countries by cold treat consumption was as follows: Kazakhstan - 2.4 kg per capita annually, Russia - 3.4 kg, and Belarus - 3.5 kg.
Dmitry Dokin
Chairman of the Board of Directors of Shin-Line, Kazakhstan
Chairman of the Board of Directors of Shin-Line, Kazakhstan
2023 Results
Until last year, the ice cream market in the three most developed EAEU countries by cold treat consumption was as follows: Kazakhstan - 2.4 kg per capita annually, Russia - 3.4 kg, and Belarus - 3.5 kg.
By the end of the 2023 season, the annual growth in ice cream production and sales in Kazakhstan showed an unprecedented 25.6%, reaching 51.6 thousand tons. Adding to this figure the import of ice cream to Kazakhstan at 10.6 thousand tons and subtracting the export of 5.9 thousand tons, the total market capacity of Kazakhstan is calculated to be 56.3 thousand tons or 2.98 kg per capita per year. It is worth noting that for a long time, it was 2.4 kg in Kazakhstan, and consumption has been gradually increasing but still lags behind Russia, where dynamic growth in 2023 has brought this figure closer to 3.8 kg.
This growth dynamic certainly pleases producers, considering that there is still room for improvement – in Southern Europe, consumption exceeds 5 kg, and in Northern Scandinavia, it is almost 10 kg per capita annually.
Beginning of 2024 Season: Production January - June
Regarding the first half of 2024, June data on ice cream production in Kazakhstan have been published. In June, there was a slight decrease in ice cream production compared to the same month in 2023 (-9.4%).
Cumulatively, fr om January to June 2023-2024, production volume slightly decreased by 2.9% (from 29,315 to 28,457 tons).
It seems that Kazakhstan's production companies are skeptical about the prospects of dynamic sales growth this season – summer began with constant rains, which did not meet the expectations of ice cream consumers. Both in May and June 2024, production fell compared to the same months in 2023.
In monetary terms, sales, accounting for inflation, even grew by 1.3% – from 37.5 to 38 billion tenge. Compared to 2022's 17 billion tenge, ice cream sales in the first half of the year doubled.
Producer Prices in Kazakhstan 2024
From January to April 2024, the average factory price for 1 kg remained unchanged (slightly over 1300 KZT/kg) – the current exchange rate is 5.4 tenge per ruble.
By June 2024, the average factory price for 1 kg rose to 1364 KZT/kg (+4.9% compared to January 2024).
The inflation rate in this product group has dropped to minimal values: from January to June 2023-2024, the factory price of ice cream increased by only 4.4%. A year earlier, the factory price increased by 39%, and from January to June 2021-2022, it rose by 19.2%.
Producer Prices in Russia 2024
Russian ice cream producer prices are 23% higher than local producers in Kazakhstan, but it is important to consider that in Russia, the price of ice cream varies significantly even among leaders - "Chistaya Liniya" (No. 5 in sales in the Russian market) is twice the price of "Aisberry" (No. 2 in sales) – thus, these 23% cannot significantly affect the market, wh ere the economy segment, mass product, and premium ice cream are actively forming.
Ice Cream Imports to Kazakhstan for 5 Months 2024 vs 2023
For the first time, from January to May 2024, the volume of ice cream imports to Kazakhstan in physical terms from Kyrgyzstan exceeded the Russian import figure, but this is exclusively an economy segment from Kyrgyzstan, bordering on hard discount.
In the first five months of 2023-2024, imports of Kyrgyz ice cream increased 2.7 times (from 1011 to 2726 tons). Kyrgyz ice cream factories conceal information about part of their production and export operations (the Kyrgyz state statistical service shows a different volume of export operations).
Imports from Russia fell slightly (-6% from January to May 2023-2024), mainly due to the continuing decline in deliveries of the Russian (Unilever) brand "Inmarko" to Kazakhstan and the switch to Turkish Algida (Unilever) – now different brands (absence of "Golden Standard") and different products (absence of waffle cones in the Turkish portfolio), all this reduced Unilever's ice cream sales from 2500 tons (from "Inmarko" times) to 1200 tons.
Imports from Belarus dropped eightfold (imports during the period decreased from 375 to 46 tons).
From January to May 2024, ice cream imports from Uzbekistan increased 2-3 times, but these are very small volumes in absolute terms.
The main restraining factors for import development are the lack of a developed frozen food distribution network, mainly controlled by local producers not interested in imported products, and the nascent growth of chain retail (currently less than 15-20% of the total retail sector).
Ice Cream Exports from Kazakhstan for 5 Months 2024 vs 2023
Export sales are gradually growing to Russia, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan – in the latter two markets, there is also a weak ice cream distribution system and market closure to new players: there is one Kazakh producer and four Russian ones – it will be very difficult for anyone else to enter these markets, limited by distribution channels.
Market Capacity of Kazakhstan in 2024
From January to May 2023-2024, the capacity of the Kazakh ice cream market decreased:
In physical terms – by 2.3% (from 21,239 to 20,743 tons),
In monetary terms (USD) at factory prices – by 4.1% (from 58.6 to 56.2 million USD),
In monetary terms (tenge) at factory prices – by 4.9% (from 27,001 to 25,666 million KZT).
Local Product = Production – Export.
The supply of local ice cream to Kazakh consumers from January to May 2023-2024 decreased significantly (-10.1%, from 17.06 to 15.33 thousand tons).
The Kazakh ice cream market is trying to stay afloat with growing imports: during the specified period, the volume of imported purchases increased from 4.18 to 5.41 thousand tons (a significant increase of 29.5%). As a result, imported products are regaining their share in the local ice cream market: over the year, the volume share increased from 19.7% to 26.1%.
Until last year, the ice cream market in the three most developed EAEU countries by cold treat consumption was as follows: Kazakhstan - 2.4 kg per capita annually, Russia - 3.4 kg, and Belarus - 3.5 kg.
By the end of the 2023 season, the annual growth in ice cream production and sales in Kazakhstan showed an unprecedented 25.6%, reaching 51.6 thousand tons. Adding to this figure the import of ice cream to Kazakhstan at 10.6 thousand tons and subtracting the export of 5.9 thousand tons, the total market capacity of Kazakhstan is calculated to be 56.3 thousand tons or 2.98 kg per capita per year. It is worth noting that for a long time, it was 2.4 kg in Kazakhstan, and consumption has been gradually increasing but still lags behind Russia, where dynamic growth in 2023 has brought this figure closer to 3.8 kg.
This growth dynamic certainly pleases producers, considering that there is still room for improvement – in Southern Europe, consumption exceeds 5 kg, and in Northern Scandinavia, it is almost 10 kg per capita annually.
Beginning of 2024 Season: Production January - June
Regarding the first half of 2024, June data on ice cream production in Kazakhstan have been published. In June, there was a slight decrease in ice cream production compared to the same month in 2023 (-9.4%).
Cumulatively, fr om January to June 2023-2024, production volume slightly decreased by 2.9% (from 29,315 to 28,457 tons).
It seems that Kazakhstan's production companies are skeptical about the prospects of dynamic sales growth this season – summer began with constant rains, which did not meet the expectations of ice cream consumers. Both in May and June 2024, production fell compared to the same months in 2023.
In monetary terms, sales, accounting for inflation, even grew by 1.3% – from 37.5 to 38 billion tenge. Compared to 2022's 17 billion tenge, ice cream sales in the first half of the year doubled.
Producer Prices in Kazakhstan 2024
From January to April 2024, the average factory price for 1 kg remained unchanged (slightly over 1300 KZT/kg) – the current exchange rate is 5.4 tenge per ruble.
By June 2024, the average factory price for 1 kg rose to 1364 KZT/kg (+4.9% compared to January 2024).
The inflation rate in this product group has dropped to minimal values: from January to June 2023-2024, the factory price of ice cream increased by only 4.4%. A year earlier, the factory price increased by 39%, and from January to June 2021-2022, it rose by 19.2%.
Producer Prices in Russia 2024
Russian ice cream producer prices are 23% higher than local producers in Kazakhstan, but it is important to consider that in Russia, the price of ice cream varies significantly even among leaders - "Chistaya Liniya" (No. 5 in sales in the Russian market) is twice the price of "Aisberry" (No. 2 in sales) – thus, these 23% cannot significantly affect the market, wh ere the economy segment, mass product, and premium ice cream are actively forming.
Ice Cream Imports to Kazakhstan for 5 Months 2024 vs 2023
For the first time, from January to May 2024, the volume of ice cream imports to Kazakhstan in physical terms from Kyrgyzstan exceeded the Russian import figure, but this is exclusively an economy segment from Kyrgyzstan, bordering on hard discount.
In the first five months of 2023-2024, imports of Kyrgyz ice cream increased 2.7 times (from 1011 to 2726 tons). Kyrgyz ice cream factories conceal information about part of their production and export operations (the Kyrgyz state statistical service shows a different volume of export operations).
Imports from Russia fell slightly (-6% from January to May 2023-2024), mainly due to the continuing decline in deliveries of the Russian (Unilever) brand "Inmarko" to Kazakhstan and the switch to Turkish Algida (Unilever) – now different brands (absence of "Golden Standard") and different products (absence of waffle cones in the Turkish portfolio), all this reduced Unilever's ice cream sales from 2500 tons (from "Inmarko" times) to 1200 tons.
Imports from Belarus dropped eightfold (imports during the period decreased from 375 to 46 tons).
From January to May 2024, ice cream imports from Uzbekistan increased 2-3 times, but these are very small volumes in absolute terms.
The main restraining factors for import development are the lack of a developed frozen food distribution network, mainly controlled by local producers not interested in imported products, and the nascent growth of chain retail (currently less than 15-20% of the total retail sector).
Ice Cream Exports from Kazakhstan for 5 Months 2024 vs 2023
Export sales are gradually growing to Russia, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan – in the latter two markets, there is also a weak ice cream distribution system and market closure to new players: there is one Kazakh producer and four Russian ones – it will be very difficult for anyone else to enter these markets, limited by distribution channels.
Market Capacity of Kazakhstan in 2024
From January to May 2023-2024, the capacity of the Kazakh ice cream market decreased:
In physical terms – by 2.3% (from 21,239 to 20,743 tons),
In monetary terms (USD) at factory prices – by 4.1% (from 58.6 to 56.2 million USD),
In monetary terms (tenge) at factory prices – by 4.9% (from 27,001 to 25,666 million KZT).
Local Product = Production – Export.
The supply of local ice cream to Kazakh consumers from January to May 2023-2024 decreased significantly (-10.1%, from 17.06 to 15.33 thousand tons).
The Kazakh ice cream market is trying to stay afloat with growing imports: during the specified period, the volume of imported purchases increased from 4.18 to 5.41 thousand tons (a significant increase of 29.5%). As a result, imported products are regaining their share in the local ice cream market: over the year, the volume share increased from 19.7% to 26.1%.
