Greenpeace: GWP* could conceal 1,538 million tonnes of livestock emissions
The research, modelled by the think-tank Cerulogy, examines how GWP* would change the emissions figures reported by major livestock exporters. According to its calculations, a 0.6% fall in their actual methane output between 2020 and 2030 could appear as a 30% reduction when measured using GWP*. Greenpeace argues that this would allow countries to present small physical reductions as substantially larger climate gains.
GWP* measures changes in the rate of methane emissions, with its calculations reflecting whether releases are increasing or decreasing. As described in the report, it treats an unchanged methane emissions rate as producing no additional warming because the gas breaks down relatively quickly. Greenpeace notes that methane nevertheless traps 80 times as much heat as carbon dioxide over the short term and accounts for approximately 0.5°C of global warming.
In a scenario involving a 30% reduction in actual emissions, the exporters could record 898 million tonnes of negative emissions under GWP*, according to the modelling. Their livestock emissions in 2030 would still amount to 640 million tonnes under the standard accounting method. The difference between those two figures produces the estimated 1,538 million tonne annual reporting gap. The report says GWP* would allow the countries to describe their emissions as having a cooling effect.
To illustrate the scale of that gap, the report compares it with Indonesia’s entire national greenhouse-gas output in 2024, which was smaller. It also puts the gap at 86% of worldwide aviation emissions in 2023 and approximately 6.4 times the greenhouse-gas footprint recorded that year by JBS, the largest meat producer globally. Its passenger-car comparison amounts to 780 million vehicles, or three times the number on European roads annually.
Across 2020–2030, the research estimates that consistent use of GWP* by all ten exporters would generate a cumulative reporting gap approaching one-fifth of current annual global greenhouse-gas emissions. Greenpeace warns that individual countries adopting the metric within international climate agreements could remove emissions from reported totals and consume part of the remaining carbon budget for holding warming to 1.5°C.
The organisation also warns that governments could use negative agricultural emissions calculated under GWP* to support slower reductions in fossil-fuel sectors. Its Australian example puts potential reported negative emissions at 76 million tonnes, comparable to the annual output of 20 coal-fired power stations. For the United States, it estimates that the emissions obscured could equal those from 86 million passenger cars.
Sophie Nodzenski, a Greenpeace International campaigner, said rapid methane reductions were important for limiting temperature overshoot while the global economy decarbonises. She criticised livestock-industry lobbying over accounting methods as temperature overshoot receives attention at COP31. Alongside its call to reject GWP* in national accounting, Greenpeace is seeking legally binding agricultural emissions targets consistent with 1.5°C and support for a just transition to ecological farming.
