Global Dairy Crisis Looming? Production Surge Swamps Markets
Sourse: dairynews.today
Global milk production has increased by 1% year-to-date, adding 3.7 billion pounds to the market, creating an imbalance and pressuring prices.
Global milk production is up 1% YTD (3.7B LBS), overwhelming demand. This dairy economics analysis predicts a price correction likely to hit producers worldwide in 2025. The international dairy market is approaching a critical imbalance, as nearly all major exporting regions are experiencing a significant, simultaneous increase in milk production. According to Daily Dairy Report analyst Betty Berning, year-to-date (YTD) output through July in the top-five export markets has risen by approximately 1% compared to 2024 levels.
This increase translates to an impressive 3.7 billion pounds of additional raw milk supply flooding the global system, creating what analysts describe as a "tidal wave" that cannot be easily absorbed. This massive surge in supply is putting tremendous downward pressure on wholesale commodity prices. The excess volume is large enough to manufacture an estimated 370 million pounds of extra cheese or up to 200 million pounds of additional butter. While demand for dairy products is incrementally rising in the developing world, Berning argues that the current pace of milk volume growth is overwhelming the global balance sheet, necessitating a production cutback or a significant price adjustment to stimulate greater international buying. Looking ahead, analysts forecast that the market disequilibrium will likely worsen before any natural correction occurs, potentially continuing through the end of 2025.
This increase translates to an impressive 3.7 billion pounds of additional raw milk supply flooding the global system, creating what analysts describe as a "tidal wave" that cannot be easily absorbed. This massive surge in supply is putting tremendous downward pressure on wholesale commodity prices. The excess volume is large enough to manufacture an estimated 370 million pounds of extra cheese or up to 200 million pounds of additional butter. While demand for dairy products is incrementally rising in the developing world, Berning argues that the current pace of milk volume growth is overwhelming the global balance sheet, necessitating a production cutback or a significant price adjustment to stimulate greater international buying. Looking ahead, analysts forecast that the market disequilibrium will likely worsen before any natural correction occurs, potentially continuing through the end of 2025.
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Rethinking Global Milk Production Figures: A Critical Perspective
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