Food Price Outlook Unchanged for 2023

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts a 5.8% increase in all food prices in 2023, with grocery prices predicted to rise by 5.1%, and restaurant prices anticipated to increase by 7.1%. In 2024, all food prices are forecasted to increase by 2.1%, with grocery prices expected to rise by 1.0%, and restaurant prices predicted to increase by 4.4%. These projections, although slightly adjusted, remain unchanged from USDA's previous outlook. External factors, such as Federal Reserve monetary policy and geopolitical tensions, could influence these forecasts, with high energy prices potentially impacting restaurant food price inflation. The forecasts for 2023 still exceed the 10-year averages for all food, restaurant, and grocery prices, while the outlook for 2024 suggests prices will be below their 20-year averages for all food and grocery items, but restaurant prices are expected to remain above that level.