Brazilian Dairy Producers Saw Buying Power Weaken as Deficit Reached $834m
The figures come from Embrapa Gado de Leite’s October 2026 Milk and Dairy Indicators Bulletin. The publication uses different reference periods: August for producer prices and the feed exchange ratio, September for retail prices and foreign trade, and October for international milk-powder quotations.
In August, producers needed 28.5 litres of milk to purchase 60kg of a feed mix made up of 70% corn and 30% soybean meal. The requirement was 27.4 litres in July, a 4% monthly increase. The bulletin described the change as a deterioration in producers’ buying power. The measure had improved from January to July, when the quantity fell from 40.7 litres to 27.4 litres. August was still better than August 2025, when 29.6 litres were required, marking a 4% annual reduction. The indicator does not measure farm profitability on its own, since productivity, sales volume and other costs also affect it.
The national average net price received by producers increased by 0.04% in August from July and was 13.7% above its level a year earlier. The prices refer to milk delivered in August and paid for in the following month. Among the six states shown in the bulletin, Minas Gerais recorded the highest price, at R$3.04 per litre. São Paulo followed at R$2.98, Goiás at R$2.97 and Paraná at R$2.92. Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul were below the national average, at R$2.78 and R$2.65. The gap between Minas Gerais and Rio Grande do Sul was R$0.39 per litre.
State-level monthly movements varied. Prices rose by 1% in Goiás, 0.8% in Paraná, 0.7% in Minas Gerais and 0.2% in São Paulo. They fell by 0.5% in Santa Catarina and 0.1% in Rio Grande do Sul.
Brazil imported 243.1 million litres of milk equivalent in dairy products in September, up 8.5% from August and 26.4% from September 2025. It was the largest monthly import volume recorded in the bulletin’s 2026 series at that point. Imports were below their year-earlier levels in January and February, but exceeded them in every month from March through September. September exports totalled 5.4 million litres of milk equivalent, leaving a monthly gap of about 237.7 million litres. Through September, the trade deficit stood at $834 million, equivalent to 1.882 billion litres of milk. The conversion allows different dairy products to be compared on a milk-equivalent basis.
Retail prices for the monitored dairy basket declined by 0.1% in September but were 6.3% higher than a year earlier. UHT milk fell 0.3% during the month and was 10.8% more expensive than in September 2025. Yoghurt rose 0.2% monthly and 9.1% annually. Cheese prices fell 0.1% over the month and increased 3.8% over 12 months. Powdered milk and butter each rose 0.3% in September, while their annual changes were declines of 1.3% and 2.8%. Condensed milk increased 0.03% monthly and fell 0.8% annually.
International quotations for October put skimmed milk powder at $3,847 a tonne, 6.9% above September, and whole milk powder at $3,605, up 0.5%. Skimmed powder rose from $2,590 a tonne in January to its October level. Whole milk powder increased from $3,428 to $3,605 over the same period. The skimmed product moved above the whole-milk quotation in September and widened the difference in October.
