In January, the price of butter 82.5% and SOM in the Russian Federation increased by an average of 10 rubles - traders
“The market has stabilized; the expected increase in prices for butter and SOM did not occur due to significant pressure on milk powder fr om Belarus, wh ere SOM reserves remained at the level of December last year - 27 thousand tons. Belarus has slowed down the export of milk powder due to events in the Red Sea, which has made logistics difficult for Belarusians. Delivery takes a detour around Africa - therefore, transport costs have increased by $50 per ton,” said Alexander Polyak.
According to the analyst, as of January 18, 2024, the world price of COM rose slightly to $2,640 (at the end of December 2023, the price was $2,630). World futures are trading at $2,750 (versus $2,710 at the end of December). The price of COM in New Zealand also increased to $2,638, while a month ago it was $2,620.
According to the DairyTrader forecast, in a month the price of COM will increase to 216 rubles/kg (+4.9%), in three months – 236 rubles/kg (+14.6%).
The results of a survey on COM prices in February 2024 in the DairyTrader chat showed that 42% of market participants expect prices to remain in the range of 200-210 rubles, as this corresponds to the Belarusian indicative. 21% of market participants believe that the cost of SOM will rise to 215-220 rubles, since prices for raw materials are high and the production of milk powder in Russia is minimal. 18% predict the price will return to 190-200 rubles, and only 9% predict a decrease in price below 190 rubles.
As Alexander Polyak reported, butter reserves of 82.5% in Belarus still show a negative value, as in December, and cheese reserves have decreased by 2 thousand tons since December and amounted to 7 thousand tons at the end of January 2024. Cheese stocks in warehouses in Russia in January remain at the level of 40 thousand tons, which is 5 thousand tons less than in December last year.
According to a survey on butter price forecasts of 82.5% in February 2024, conducted in the DairyTrader chat, 32% of market participants expect the price to rise to 680-700 rubles, explaining this by good demand and some supply shortage. 30% of respondents are confident that the price will remain in the range of 660-680 rubles, which indicates a balanced market. 15% of survey participants stated a possible price increase to 700-715 rubles due to strong demand; in the Republic of Belarus, warehouses show a negative value.
The average price of raw milk as of January 18, 2024 in the Russian Federation was 38-39 rubles/kg, which corresponds to the level of the end of December.
“The market for raw materials has stabilized and stopped growing. Expectations for cheese prices mean a stop to further growth. Accordingly, expensive raw materials will be in less demand, which will most likely lead to a decrease in the cost of milk from mid-February to mid-March. Demand for raw milk is significantly higher than last year. Whole milk sells well,” summarized Alexander Polyak.
Be the first to receive all the news from the dairy industry in Russia and Belarus in the Telegram channel The DairyNews.
